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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-92
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-92
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 08 Apr 2020

Submitted as: research article | 08 Apr 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Tidal flood area mapping fronts the climate change scenarios: case study in a tropical estuary of Brazilian semiarid

Paulo Victor N. Araújo1,2,3, Venerando E. Amaro1,3, Leonlene S. Aguiar3, Caio C. Lima3,4, and Alexandre B. Lopes5 Paulo Victor N. Araújo et al.
  • 1Postgraduate Program in Geodynamics and Geophysics (PPGG), Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, P.O. Box 1524, Natal-RN, 59078-970, Brazil
  • 2Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Rio Grande do Norte, Macau-RN, 59500-000, Brazil
  • 3Laboratory of Geotechnologies, Coastal and Ocean Modelling (GNOMO), Department of Civil Engineering, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Natal-RN, 59078-970, Brazil
  • 4Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Rio Grande do Norte, Natal-RN, 59015-000, Brazil
  • 5Center of Sea Studies, Federal University of Parana, P.O. Box 61, Curitiba-PR, 83225-976, Brazil

Abstract. Previous studies on tidal flood mapping are mostly with continental and/or global scale approaches. Besides, the few works on local scale perception are concentrated in Europe, Asia, and North America. Here we present a case study approaching a flood risk mapping methodology against climate change scenarios in a region with a strong environmental and social appeal. The study site is an estuarine cut in the Brazilian semi-arid, covering part of two state conservation units, which has been in recent years suffering severe consequences from flooding by tides. In this case study, high geodetic precision data (LiDAR DEM), together with robust tidal return period statistics and data from current sea level rise scenarios were used. We found that approximately 118.26 km2 of the estuary understudy is at high risk, extremely high risk and urgently in need of mitigation measures. This case study can serve as a basis for future management actions as well as a model for applying risk mapping in other coastal areas.

Paulo Victor N. Araújo et al.

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This job approaching a flood risk mapping methodology against climate change scenarios in a region with a strong environmental and social appeal. The study area has been in recent years suffering severe consequences from flooding by tides. High geodetic precision data, together with tidal return period statistics and data from current sea level rise scenarios were used. This case study can serve as a basis for future management actions and as a model to be copied.
This job approaching a flood risk mapping methodology against climate change scenarios in a...
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