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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-56
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-56
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 18 Mar 2020

Submitted as: research article | 18 Mar 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Rapid flood risk screening model for compound flood events in Beira, Mozambique

Erik C. van Berchum1, Mathijs van Ledden2, Jos S. Timmermans3, Jan H. Kwakkel3, and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman1 Erik C. van Berchum et al.
  • 1Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2600GA, Netherlands
  • 2Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, Washington, DC, 20433, United States
  • 3Department of Multi-Actor Systems, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2600GA, Netherlands

Abstract. Coastal cities combine intensive socio-economic activity and investments with high exposure to flood hazards. Developing effective strategies to manage flood risk in coastal cities is often a costly and complicated process. In the design of these strategies, engineers rely on computationally demanding flood simulation models and only compare a few strategies due to computational constraints. This limits the efficacy of standard flood simulation models in the crucial conceptual phase of flood risk management. This paper presents the Flood Risk Reduction Evaluation and Screening (FLORES)-model, which specifically aims to provide useful risk information early on in the planning process. FLORES performs numerous quick simulations and compares the impact of many storms, strategies, and future scenarios. This article presents the screening model and demonstrates its merits in a case study for Beira, Mozambique. Our results demonstrate that expansion of the drainage capacity and strengthening of its coastal protection in the southwest, are crucial components of any effective flood risk management strategy for Beira.

Erik C. van Berchum et al.

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Erik C. van Berchum et al.

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Short summary
Flood risk management is especially complicated in coastal cities. The complexity of multiple flood hazards in a rapidly changing urban environment leads to a situation with many different potential measures and future scenarios. This research demonstrates a new model, capable of quickly simulating flood impact and comparing many different strategies. This is applied to the city of Beira, where it was able to provide new insights into the local flood risk and potential strategies.
Flood risk management is especially complicated in coastal cities. The complexity of multiple...
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