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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-51
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-51
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: invited perspectives 27 Mar 2020

Submitted as: invited perspectives | 27 Mar 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

The Volcanoes of Naples: how effectively mitigating the highest volcanic risk in the World?

Giuseppe De Natale, Claudia Troise, and Renato Somma Giuseppe De Natale et al.
  • Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Diocleziano 328, Naples, Italy

Abstract. The Naples (Southern Italy) area has the highest volcanic risk in the World, due to the coexistence of three highly explosive volcanoes (Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Ischia) with extremely dense urbanisation. More than three millions people live to within twenty kilometres from a possible eruptive vent. Mitigating such an extreme risk is made difficult because volcanic eruptions forecast is today an empirical procedure with very uncertain outcome. This paper starts recalling the state of the art of eruption forecast, and then describes the main hazards in the Neapolitan area, shortly presenting the activity and present state of its volcanoes. Then, it proceeds to suggest the most effective procedures to mitigate the extreme volcanic and associated risks. The problem is afforded in a highly multidisciplinary way, taking into account the main economic, sociological and urban issues. The proposed mitigation actions are then compared with the existing emergency plans, developed by Italian Civil Protection, by highlighting their numerous, very evident problems. Our study, besides regarding the most complex and extreme situation of volcanic risk in the World, gives guidelines to assessing and managing volcanic risk in any densely urbanised area.

Giuseppe De Natale et al.

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Giuseppe De Natale et al.

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Short summary
This paper starts showing the present, low performance of eruption forecast, and then affords the problem to effectively mitigating the highest volcanic risk in the World, represented by the Naples area (Southern Italy). The problem is considered in a highly multidisciplinary way, taking into account the main economic, sociological and urban planning issues. Our study gives precise guidelines to assessing and managing volcanic risk in any densely urbanised area.
This paper starts showing the present, low performance of eruption forecast, and then affords...
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