Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 2.883 IF 2.883
  • IF 5-year value: 3.321 IF 5-year
    3.321
  • CiteScore value: 3.07 CiteScore
    3.07
  • SNIP value: 1.336 SNIP 1.336
  • IPP value: 2.80 IPP 2.80
  • SJR value: 1.024 SJR 1.024
  • Scimago H <br class='hide-on-tablet hide-on-mobile'>index value: 81 Scimago H
    index 81
  • h5-index value: 43 h5-index 43
Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-117
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-117
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 22 Apr 2020

Submitted as: research article | 22 Apr 2020

Review status
This preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Does the AO index have predictive power regarding extreme cold temperatures in Europe?

Tamás Bódai1,2 and Torben Schmith3 Tamás Bódai and Torben Schmith
  • 1Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, Republic of Korea, 46241
  • 2Pusan National University, Busan, Republic of Korea, 46241
  • 3Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark

Abstract. With a view to seasonal forecasting of extreme value statistics, we apply the method of Nonstationary extreme value statistics to determine the predictive power of large scale quantities. Regarding winter cold extremes over Europe, we find that the monthly mean daily minimum local temperature – which we call a native co-variate in the present context – has a much larger predictive power than the nonlocal monthly mean Arctic Oscillation index. Our results also prompt that the exploitation of both co-variates is not possible from 70 years-long data sets.

Tamás Bódai and Torben Schmith

Interactive discussion

Status: open (until 17 Jun 2020)
Status: open (until 17 Jun 2020)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
[Subscribe to comment alert] Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

Tamás Bódai and Torben Schmith

Tamás Bódai and Torben Schmith

Viewed

Total article views: 139 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
114 23 2 139 0 1
  • HTML: 114
  • PDF: 23
  • XML: 2
  • Total: 139
  • BibTeX: 0
  • EndNote: 1
Views and downloads (calculated since 22 Apr 2020)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 22 Apr 2020)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 95 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 95 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 

Cited

Saved

No saved metrics found.

Discussed

No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 31 May 2020
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
A lot of people work outdoors year-round and their work safety is of basic concern. For example, in shipping route planning, it is very important to be able to know well in advance how long time crew can stay on deck to carry out their task, which depends on the temperature. We examine one element of a forecast system with respect to the choice of the quantity that it relies on. The forecast of cold extremes can be much more precise when relying on a local quantity rather than a nonlocal one.
A lot of people work outdoors year-round and their work safety is of basic concern. For example,...
Citation