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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-11
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-11
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 03 Feb 2020

Submitted as: research article | 03 Feb 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Vehicles Hit by Landslides: A Case Study

Meng Lu1, Jie Zhang1, Lulu Zhang2, and Limin Zhang3 Meng Lu et al.
  • 1Key Laboratory of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering of Ministry of Education and Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China
  • 2State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering and Department of Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
  • 3Department of Civil Engineering, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong, China

Abstract. Landslides threaten the safety of vehicles on highways. Nevertheless, a rigorous quantitative highway landslide risk assessment seems difficult. Using a case study in Hong Kong, this paper presents a method for quantitative risk assessment for highway landslides. The suggested method consists of three parts, i.e., analysis of annual failure probability of the slope, the spatial impact analysis and the consequence analysis. In the case study, the annual failure probability of the slope is analyzed based on historical failure data in Hong Kong. The spatial impact of the landslides is estimated based on empirical correlations with the geometry of the slope. The consequence is assessed based on probabilistic modeling of the traffic on the highway. Based on the suggested method, the annual failure probability of the slope, the distance from the slope and the road and the density of vehicles on the road can significantly affect the landslide risk and the suggested method can be used to quantify the effects of these factors. The suggested method can be also potentially used to analyze the highway landslide risk in other regions.

Meng Lu et al.

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Meng Lu et al.

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Short summary
Landslides threaten the safety of vehicles on highways. A rigorous quantitative highway landslide risk assessment is difficult. Using a case study in Hong Kong, this paper presents a method for quantitative risk assessment for highway landslides. The results show the annual failure probability of the slope, the distance from the slope and the road and the density of vehicles can significantly affect the landslide risk. The suggested method can be also potentially used in other regions.
Landslides threaten the safety of vehicles on highways. A rigorous quantitative highway...
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