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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-101
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-101
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 04 May 2020

Submitted as: research article | 04 May 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

A nonstationary analysis for investigating the multiscale variability of extreme surges: case of the English Channel coasts

Imen Turki1, Lisa Baulon1,2, Nicolas Massei1, Benoit Laignel1, Stéphane Costa3, Matthieu Fournier1, and Olivier Maquaire3 Imen Turki et al.
  • 1UMR CNRS 6143 Continental and Coastal Morphodynamics "M2C" University of Rouen, 76821 Mont-Saint-Aignan CEDEX, France
  • 2French Geological Survey, 3 avenue Claude Guillemin, 45060 Orléans CEDEX, France
  • 3UMR CNRS 6554 GEOPEN

Abstract. This research examines the nonstationary dynamics of extreme surges along the English Channel coasts and seeks to make their connection to the climate patterns at different time-scales by the use of a detailed spectral analysis in order to gain insights on the physical mechanisms relating the global atmospheric circulation to the local-scale variability of the monthly extreme surges. The variability of extreme surges highlights different oscillatory components from the interannual (~ 1.5-years, ~ 2–4-years, ~ 5–8-years) to the interdecadal (~ 12–16-years) scales with mean explained variances of ~ 25–32 % and ~ 2–4 % of the total variability, respectively. Using the two hypotheses that the physical mechanisms of the atmospheric circulation change according to the timescales and their connection with the local variability improves the prediction of the extremes, we have demonstrated statistically significant correlations between ~ 1.5-years, ~ 2–4-years, and ~ 5–8-years and 12–16-years with the different climate oscillations of Sea-Level Pressure, Zonal Wind, North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, respectively. Such physical links have been used to implement the parameters of the time-dependent GEV distribution models. The introduced climate information in the GEV parameters has considerably improved the prediction of the different time-scales of surges with an explained variance higher than 30 %. This improvement exhibits their nonlinear relationship with the large-scale atmospheric circulation.

Imen Turki et al.

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Short summary
We examine the variability of storm surges along the English Channel coasts and their connection with the global atmospheric circulation at the interannual and the interdecadal timescales using hybrid approaches combining the wavelet techniques and the probabilistic GEV models. Our hypothesis is that the physical mechanisms of the atmospheric circulation change according to the timescales and their connection with the local variability improves the prediction of the extreme surges.
We examine the variability of storm surges along the English Channel coasts and their connection...
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