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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-83
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-83
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 18 Mar 2019

Research article | 18 Mar 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Decreasing uncertainty in flood frequency analyses by including historic flood events in an efficient bootstrap approach

Anouk Bomers1, Ralph Schielen1,2, and Suzanne Hulscher1 Anouk Bomers et al.
  • 1University of Twente, Dienstweg 1, Enschede, The Netherlands
  • 2Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management-Rijskwaterstaat, Arnhem, The Netherlands

Abstract. Flood frequency curves are usually highly uncertain since they are based on short data sets of measured discharges or weather conditions. To decrease the confidence intervals, an efficient bootstrap method is developed in this study. The Rhine river delta is considered as a case study. A hydraulic model is used to normalize historic flood events for anthropogenic and natural changes in the river system. As a result, the data set of measured discharges could be extended with approximately 600 years. The study shows that flood events decrease the confidence interval of the flood frequency curve significantly, specifically in the range of large floods. This even applies if the maximum discharges of these historic flood events are highly uncertain themselves.

Anouk Bomers et al.
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Anouk Bomers et al.
Anouk Bomers et al.
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Short summary
Flood frequency curves are usually highly uncertain since they are based on short data sets of measured discharges or weather conditions. To decrease the confidence intervals, an efficient bootstrap method is developed. With this method, the data set of measured discharges of the Rhine river could be extended with approximately 600 years. The study shows that flood events decrease the confidence interval of the flood frequency curve significantly, specifically in the range of large floods.
Flood frequency curves are usually highly uncertain since they are based on short data sets of...
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