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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-42
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-42
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 22 Mar 2019

Research article | 22 Mar 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

An improved method of Newmark analysis for mapping hazards of coseismic landslides

Mingdong Zang1,2,3, Shengwen Qi1,2,3, Zhuping Sheng4, Blanca S. Zamora4, and Yu Zou1,2,3 Mingdong Zang et al.
  • 1Key Laboratory of Shale Gas and Geoengineering, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
  • 2Institutions of Earth Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
  • 3University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
  • 4Texas A&M AgriLife Research Center at El Paso, El Paso, Texas 79927, USA

Abstract. Coseismic landslides have been responsible for destroyed buildings and structures, dislocated roads and bridges, cut off of pipelines and lifelines, and tens of thousands of deaths. Newmark's method is widely applied to assess the permanent displacement along a potential slide surface to determine the coseismic responses of the slope. The Mw 6.1 (USGS) earthquake in Ludian, Yunnan Province, China in 2014 has caused widespread landslides and provided the ideal data sets to conduct a regional analysis of coseismic stability of slopes. The data sets include the topography, shear strength, and ground shaking of the study area. All of these data sets are digitized and rasterized at 30 m grid spacing using ArcGIS and combined in a dynamic slope model based on Newmark permanent-deformation analysis. The application of Barton model was then applied in the permanent-deformation analysis. According to a method of inexact reasoning, comparisons are made between the predicted displacements and a comprehensive inventory of landslides triggered by the Ludian earthquake to map the spatial variability in certainty factors. A coseismic landslide hazard map is then produced based on the spatial distribution of the values of certainty factors. Such map can be applied to predict the hazard zone of the region and provide guidelines for making decisions regarding infrastructure development and post-earthquake reconstruction.

Mingdong Zang et al.
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Short summary
Coseismic landslides often cause great loss of lives and properties in the seismic zone. Accurately mapping the hazards is a very important and challenge work. This paper considers the roughness and size effect of the potential sliding surface-unloading joint, incorporates the seismic hazard analysis of the study area, and then presents an improved method of Newmark analysis for mapping hazards of coseismic landslides. The approach is well verified by Mw 6.1 Ludian earthquake in 2014.
Coseismic landslides often cause great loss of lives and properties in the seismic zone....
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