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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 08 Jan 2020

Submitted as: research article | 08 Jan 2020

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Network-risk: an open GIS toolbox for estimating the implications of transportation network damage due to natural hazards, tested for Bucharest, Romania

Dragos Toma-Danila1, Iuliana Armas2, and Alexandru Tiganescu1 Dragos Toma-Danila et al.
  • 1National Institute for Earth Physics, Magurele, Ilfov, 077125, Romania
  • 2Faculty of Geography, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, 010041, Romania

Abstract. Due to their widespread and continuous expansion, transportation networks are considerably exposed to natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, landslides or hurricanes. The vulnerability of specific segments and structures such as bridges, tunnels, pumps or storage tanks can translate not only in direct losses but also in significant indirect losses at systemic level. Cascading effects such as post-event traffic congestion, building debris or tsunamis can contribute to an even greater level of risk. To support the effort of modelling the natural hazards implications at full transportation network scale, we developed a new applicable framework relying on (i) GIS to define, geo-spatially analyze and represent transportation networks; (ii) methods for determining the probability of network segments to fail due to natural hazard effects; (iii) MonteCarlo simulation for multiple scenario generation; (iv) methods (using Dijkstra algorithm) to analyze the implications of connectivity loss on emergency intervention times and transit disruption, (v) correlations with other vulnerability and risk indicators. Currently, the framework is integrated in ArcGIS Desktop as a toolbox (entitled Network-risk) – making use of the Model Builder functions and being free for download and customize. Network-risk is an attempt to bring together interdisciplinary research with the goal of creating an automated solution to deliver insights on how a transportation network can be affected by natural hazards, directly and indirectly, aiding in risk evaluation and mitigation planning. In this article we present and test Network-risk at full urban scale, for the entire road network of Bucharest – one of the world's most exposed capitals due to earthquakes, with high seismic hazard values and a vulnerable building stock, but also significant traffic congestion problems not yet quantified in risk analyses.

Dragos Toma-Danila et al.
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Dragos Toma-Danila et al.
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Publications Copernicus
Short summary
Natural hazards have an increasing impact on transportation networks. In order to analyse it we developed Network-risk – an open toolbox for ArcGIS. The toolbox links multiple input data such as network datasets (also OSM data), traffic values or segments which can be affected, determining how hard it is to reach an area and enabling the evaluation of socio-economic implications. By testing Network-risk to Bucharest we show areas difficult to reach by emergency units in case of earthquakes.
Natural hazards have an increasing impact on transportation networks. In order to analyse it we...