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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-407
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-407
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 28 Feb 2020

Submitted as: research article | 28 Feb 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Modelling dependence and coincidence of storm surges and high tide: Methodology and simplified case study in Le Havre (France)

Amine Ben Daoued1, Yasser Hamdi2, Nassima Mouhous-Voyneau1, and Philippe Sergent3 Amine Ben Daoued et al.
  • 1Sorbonne University, Université de Technologie de Compiègne, 60203 Compiègne, France
  • 2Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, 92262 Fontenay-Aux-Roses, France
  • 3Centre d'étude et d'expertise sur les risques, l'environnement, la mobilité et l'aménagement, France

Abstract. Coastal facilities such as nuclear power plants (NPPs) have to be designed to withstand extreme weather conditions and must, in particular, be protected against coastal floods because it is the most important source of coastal lowlands inundations. Indeed, considering the combination of tide and extreme storm surges (SSs) is a key issue in the evaluation of the risk associated to coastal flooding hazard. Tide and extreme SSs are considered as independent. While there are several approaches to analyze and characterize coastal flooding hazard with either extreme SSs or sea levels, only few studies propose and compare several approaches combining the tide density with the SS variable. Thus this study aims to develop a method for modelling dependence and coincidence of SSs and high tide. In this work, we have used existing methods for tide and SS combination and tried to improve the results by proposing a new alternative approach while showing the limitations and advantages of each method. The city of Le Havre in France was used as a case study. Overall, the example has shown that the return levels estimates using different combinations are quite different. It has also been suggested that the questions of coincidence and dependency are essential for a combined tide and SS hazard analysis.

Amine Ben Daoued et al.

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Short summary
This paper deals with the evaluation of the risk associated to coastal flooding by combining the tide with extreme storm surges. In this work, methods for tide and storm surge combination were compared. Le Havre in France was used as a case study. Overall, the example has shown that the return levels estimates using different combinations are quite different. It has also been suggested that the questions of coincidence and dependency are essential for a combined tide and SS hazard analysis.
This paper deals with the evaluation of the risk associated to coastal flooding by combining the...
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