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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-375
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-375
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 20 Jan 2020

Submitted as: research article | 20 Jan 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Estimation of Tropical Cyclone Wind Hazards in Coastal Regions of China

Genshen Fang1,3, Lin Zhao1,2, Shuyang Cao1,2, Ledong Zhu1,2, and Yaojun Ge1,2 Genshen Fang et al.
  • 1State Key Lab of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China
  • 2Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Wind Resistant Technology for Bridge Structures, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China
  • 3Glenn Department of Civil Engineering, Clemson University, Clemson, SC 29634, USA

Abstract. Coastal regions of China feature high population densities as well as wind-sensitive structures and are therefore vulnerable to tropical cyclones (TCs) with approximately 6~8 landfalls annually. This study predicts TC wind hazard curves in terms of design wind speed versus return periods for major coastal cities of China to facilitate TC-wind-resistant design and disaster mitigation as well as insurance-related risk assessment. 10-min wind information provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) from 1977 to 2015 is employed to rebuild TC wind field parameters (radius to maximum winds Rmax,s and shape parameter of radial pressure profile Bs) at surface level using a height-resolving boundary layer model. These parameters will be documented to develop an improved JMA dataset. The probabilistic behaviours of historical tracks and wind field parameters at the first time step within a 500-km-radius subregion centred at a site of interest are examined to determine preferable probability distribution models before stochastically generating correlated genesis parameters utilizing the Cholesky decomposition method. Recursive models are applied for translation speed, Rmax,s and Bs during the TC track and wind field simulations. Site-specific TC wind hazards are studied using 10,000-year Monte Carlo simulations and compared with code suggestions as well as other studies. The resulting estimated wind speeds for northern cities (Ningbo and Wenzhou) under TC climates climate are higher than code recommendations while those for southern cities (Zhanjiang and Haikou) are lower. Other cities show a satisfactory agreement with code provisions at the height of 10 m. Some potential reasons for these findings are discussed to emphasize the importance of independently developing hazard curves of TC winds under non-synoptic climates.

Genshen Fang et al.

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Short summary
Coastal regions of China feature high population densities as well as flexible structures and are therefore vulnerable to tropical cyclone (TC) damages. TC is a moving rotating storm with a small occurrence rate at a specific site. Wind anemometers are usually damaged during strong typhoon events, making the record of observed winds an unreliable predictor for design wind speed. This study uses the Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the typhoon wind hazards in coastal regions of China.
Coastal regions of China feature high population densities as well as flexible structures and...
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