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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-370
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-370
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 09 Dec 2019

Submitted as: research article | 09 Dec 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

An agent-based model for flood risk warning

Thomas O'Shea, Paul Bates, and Jeffrey Neal Thomas O'Shea et al.
  • School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, UK

Abstract. This paper presents a new flood risk behaviour model developed using a coupled Hydrodynamic Agent-Based Model (HABM). This model uses the LISFLOOD-FP Hydrodynamic Model and the NetLogo (NL) agent-based framework and is applied to the 2005 flood event in Carlisle, UK. The hydrodynamic model provides a realistic simulation of detailed flood dynamics through the event whilst the agent-based model component enables simulation and analysis of the complex, in-event social response. NetLogo enables alternative probabilistic daily routine and agent choice scenarios for the individuals of Carlisle to be simulated in a coupled fashion with the flood inundation. Experiments are also conducted using a novel, enhanced social modelling component, comprised of the Bass Diffusion Model, to investigate the effect of direct or indirect warnings in flood incident response.

From the analysis of these coupled simulations, management stress points, predictable or otherwise, can be presented to those responsible for hazard management and post-event recovery. The results within this paper suggest that these stress points can be present, or amplified, by a lack of preparedness or a lack of phased evacuation measures. Furthermore, the methods here outlined have the potential for application elsewhere to reduce the complexity and improve the effectiveness of flood incident management. The paper demonstrates the influence that emergent properties have on systematic vulnerability and risk from natural hazards in coupled socio-environmental systems.

Thomas O'Shea et al.
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Thomas O'Shea et al.
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Short summary
Here outlined is a multi-disciplinary framework for analysing and evaluating the nature of vulnerability to, and capacity for, flood hazard within a complex urban society. It provides scope beyond the current, reified, descriptors of flood risk and models the role of affected individuals within flooded areas. By using agent-based modelling coupled with the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model, potentially influential behaviours that give rise to the Flood Hazard System are identified and discussed.
Here outlined is a multi-disciplinary framework for analysing and evaluating the nature of...
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