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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-350
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-350
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 27 Nov 2019

Submitted as: research article | 27 Nov 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Choice of a wildfire risk system for eucalyptus plantation: a case study for FWI, FMA⁺ and horus systems in Brazil

Fernando Coelho Eugenio1, Alexandre Rosa dos Santos2, Beatriz Duguy Pedra3, José Eduardo Macedo Pezzopane2, Lima Deleon Martins4, Cássio Carlette Thiengo2, and Nathália Suemi Saito2 Fernando Coelho Eugenio et al.
  • 1Department of agricultural engineering, Federal University of Santa Maria, Cachoeira do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
  • 2Department of Forest Sciences, Federal University of Espírito Santo, Jerônimo Monteiro, Espírito Santo, Brazil
  • 3Department of Evolutive Biology, Ecology and Environmental Sciences, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
  • 4PostGraduate Programme in Plant Production, Federal University of Espírito, Aegre, Espírito Santo, Brazil

Abstract. With the advent of computation and the progressive advancement of geotechnologies, the use of mathematical models of wildfire risk became more expressive in quantitative terms. The existence of a significant and variable number of models of wildfires risk presents the necessity to select the model that best fits a probable region – which can be done in two ways: visually or through the confrontation of existing models. In this sense, the present study aims at selecting the wildfire risk models FWI, FMA⁺ and RIF-Database for the Eucalyptus plantations. The study area extends from the north-central coast of the state of Espírito Santo and the south coast of Bahia, Brazil. The database was comprised the period between January 1st, 2010 to June 30st, 2016, with 10,447 occurrences. The validation and choice of the results were determined by the success percentages and the skill score value, for each subzone and risk model. After, it was performed the parametric analysis of Variance Analysis (ANOVA), if the F test was significant, the Tukey-Kramer post-hoc test (p < 0.05) was used to compare all the ids with each other. We observed in days with wildfire, a greater sensitivity of the FMA⁺ model, which presented success percentage values higher than 60 % for all subzones. However, it presented the worst results for the days without wildfire and, consequently, the worst results for the overall success rate. Additionally, considering the skill score value, the FWI model presented the best results for subzone 1. The RIF-Database model presented excellent results, being the model to be used for subzones 2 and 3.

Fernando Coelho Eugenio et al.
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CHOICE OF A WILDFIRE RISK SYSTEM FOR EUCALYPTUS PLANTATION: A CASE STUDY FOR FWI, FMA⁺ AND HORUS SYSTEMS IN BRAZIL F. Coelho Eugenio, A. Rosa dos Santos, Be. Duguy Pedra, J. E. Macedo Pezzopane, L. Deleon Martins, C. Carlette Thiengo, and N. Suemi Saito https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-350

Fernando Coelho Eugenio et al.
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Short summary
The present study aims at selecting the wildfire risk models FWI, FMA⁺ and RIF Database for the Eucalyptus plantations. The study area extends from the north central coast of the state of Espírito Santo and the south coast of Bahia, Brazil.
The present study aims at selecting the wildfire risk models FWI, FMA⁺ and RIF Database for...
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