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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-349
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-349
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 13 Dec 2019

Submitted as: research article | 13 Dec 2019

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

A multivariate statistical method for susceptibility analysis of the debris flow in Southwest China

Feng Ji1 and Zili Dai2 Feng Ji and Zili Dai
  • 1State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China
  • 2Center for Natural Disaster Reduction Research and Education, Shimane University, 1060 Nishikawatsu-cho, Matsue, Shimane 690-8504, Japan

Abstract. Southwest China is characterized by many steep mountains and deep valleys due to the uplift activity of the Tibetan Plateau. The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake left large amounts of loose materials in this area, making it a severe disaster zone in terms of debris flow. Susceptibility is a significant factor of debris flow for evaluating its formation and impact. Therefore, it is in urgent need to analyze the susceptibility of debris flows in this area. At present, the susceptibility analysis models of the debris flow in Southwest China is mainly based on qualitative methods. Little quantitative prediction model is found in the literature. This study evaluates 70 typical debris flow gullies as statistical samples, which are distributed along the Brahmaputra River, Nujiang River, Yalong River, Dadu River, and Ming River respectively. Nine indexes are chosen to construct a factor index system and then to evaluate the susceptibility of debris flow. They are the catchment area, longitudinal grade, average gradient of the slope on both sides of the gully, catchment morphology, valley slope orientation, loose material reserves, location of the main loose material, antecedent precipitation, and rainfall intensity. Then, an empirical model based on the quantification theory type I is established for the susceptibility prediction of debris flows in Southwest China. Finally, 10 debris flow gullies on the upstream of the Dadu River are analyzed to verify the reliability of the proposed model. The results show that the accuracy of the statistical model is 90 %.

Feng Ji and Zili Dai
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Feng Ji and Zili Dai
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Short summary
Southwest China is a severe disaster zone in terms of debris flow. To analyze the susceptibility of debris flows in this area, this study evaluates 70 typical debris flow gullies as statistical samples and proposes an empirical model based on the quantification theory. 10 debris flow gullies on the upstream of the Dadu River are analyzed to verify the reliability of the proposed model. The results show that the accuracy of the statistical model is 90 %.
Southwest China is a severe disaster zone in terms of debris flow. To analyze the susceptibility...
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