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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-330
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-330
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 28 Nov 2019

Submitted as: research article | 28 Nov 2019

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Global scale benefit-cost analysis of coastal flood adaptation to different flood risk drivers

Timothy Tiggeloven1, Hans de Moel1, Hessel C. Winsemius2,5, Dirk Eilander1,2, Gilles Erkens2, Eskedar Gebremedhin2, Andres Diaz Loaiza1,6, Samantha Kuzma4, Tianyi Luo4, Charles Iceland4, Arno Bouwman3, Jolien van Huijstee3, Willem Ligtvoet3, and Philip J. Ward1 Timothy Tiggeloven et al.
  • 1Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; The Netherlands
  • 2Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands
  • 3PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; The Hague, The Netherlands
  • 4World Resources Institute; Washington DC, USA
  • 5Water Management Department, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands
  • 6Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands

Abstract. Coastal flood hazard and exposure are expected to increase over the course of the 21st century, leading to increased coastal flood risk. In order to limit the increase in future risk, or even reduce coastal flood risk, adaptation is necessary. Here, we present a framework to evaluate the future benefits and costs of structural protection measures at the global scale, which accounts for the influence of different flood risk drivers (namely: sea-level rise, subsidence, and socioeconomic change). Globally, we find that the estimated expected annual damage (EAD) increases by a factor of 150 between 2010 and 2080, if we assume that no adaptation takes place. We find that 15 countries account for approximately 90 % of this increase. We then explore four different adaptation objectives and find that they all show high potential to cost-effectively reduce (future) coastal flood risk at the global scale. Attributing the total costs for optimal protection standards, we find that sea-level rise contributes the most to the total costs of adaptation. However, the other drivers also play an important role. The results of this study can be used to highlight potential savings through adaptation at the global scale.

Timothy Tiggeloven et al.
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Benefit-cost analysis of adaptation objectives to coastal flooding at the global scale T. Tiggeloven https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3475120

Timothy Tiggeloven et al.
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Short summary
We present a framework to evaluate the benefits and costs of coastal adaptation through dikes to reduce future flood risk. If no adaptation takes place, we find that global coastal flood risk increases 150-fold by 2080 with sea-level rise contributing the most. Moreover, 15 countries account for 90 % of this increase and that adaptation shows high potential to cost-effectively reduce flood risk. The results will be integrated into the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer webtool (http://www.wri.org/floods ).
We present a framework to evaluate the benefits and costs of coastal adaptation through dikes to...
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