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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-309
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-309
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 25 Nov 2019

Submitted as: research article | 25 Nov 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Measuring the seismic risk along the Nazca-Southamerican subduction front: Shannon entropy and mutability

Eugenio E. Vogel1,2, Felipe G. Brevis1, Denisse Pastén3,4, Víctor Muñoz3, Rodrigo A. Miranda5,6, and Abraham C.-L. Chian7,8 Eugenio E. Vogel et al.
  • 1Departamento de Física, Universidad de La Frontera, Casilla 54-D, Temuco, Chile
  • 2Center for the Development of Nanoscience and Nanotechnology (CEDENNA), 9170124 Santiago, Chile
  • 3Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
  • 4Advanced Mining Technology Center (AMTC), Santiago, Chile
  • 5UnB-Gama Campus, University of Brasilia, Brasilia DF 70910-900, Brazil
  • 6Plasma Physics Laboratory, Institute of Physics, University of Brasilia, Brasilia DF 70910-900, Brazil
  • 7University of Adelaide, School of Mathematical Sciences, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia
  • 8National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao Jose dos Campos-SP 12227-010, Brazil

Abstract. Four geographical zones are defined along the trench that is formed due to the subduction of the Nazca Plate underneath the South American plate; they are denoted A, B, C and D from North to South; zones A, B and D have had a major earthquake after 2010 (8.0), while zone C has not, thus offering a contrast for comparison. For each zone a sequence of intervals between consecutive seisms with magnitudes ≥ 3.0 is formed and then characterized by Shannon entropy and mutability. These methods show correlation after a major earthquake in what is known as the aftershock regime but they show independence otherwise. Exponential adjustments for these parameters reveal that mutability offers a wider range for the parameters characterizing the recovery to the values of the parameters defining the background activity for each zone before a large earthquake. It is found that the background activity is particularly high for zone A, still recovering for Zone B, reaching values similar to those of Zone A in the case of Zone C (without recent major earthquake) and oscillating around moderate values for Zone D. It is discussed how this can be an indication for more risk of an important future seism in the cases of Zones A and C. The similarities and differences between Shannon entropy and mutability are discussed and explained.

Eugenio E. Vogel et al.
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Short summary
Earthquakes are natural hazardous phenomena that can bring death, destruction, economical crisis, migrations and other social implications. This paper aims to understand one of the main causes for seismic activity: subduction of one Earth plate underneath another one in a stochastic way. The time series associated to this activity provides information which we have analyzed it by new techniques. This allows us to estimate where important earthquakes can occur although we cannot yet say when.
Earthquakes are natural hazardous phenomena that can bring death, destruction, economical...
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