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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-293
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-293
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 30 Sep 2019

Submitted as: research article | 30 Sep 2019

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Temporal variability of social vulnerability to storm surges in Shenzhen, China

Huaming Yu1,2,*, Yuhang Shen1,2,*, Ryan M. Kelly3, Xin Qi4, Kejian Wu1,2, Songlin Li1,2, Haiqing Yu5, and Xianwen Bao1,2 Huaming Yu et al.
  • 1College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China
  • 2Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ministry of Education, Qingdao, 266003, China
  • 3Rykell Scientific Editorial, LLC, Los Angeles, CA, USA
  • 4Department of Organic Food Quality and Food Culture, Faculty of Organic Agricultural Sciences, University of Kassel, Nordbahnhofstrasse 1A, 37213, Witzenhausen, Germany
  • 5College of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266003, China
  • *These authors contributed equally to this work.

Abstract. A social vulnerability evaluation of storm surges is important for any coastal city to commence in order to provide marine disaster preparedness and mitigation procedures and to formulate post-disaster emergency plans for coastal communities. This study establishes an integrated evaluation system of social vulnerability by blending a variety of single evaluation methods, applying the idea of combination weighting and calculating the social vulnerability index of storm surges. Shenzhen, with a current reputation of having the most economic development potential and a representative city in China, is chosen to evaluate its social vulnerability to storm surges via a historical social and economic statistical dataset spanning from 1986 to 2016. The research extends further by analyzing the city’s temporal variability. Results reveal that social vulnerability keeps almost constant from 1986–1991 and 1993–2004, while it decreased sharply in the remainder of times to show a ‘stair-type’ declining curve over the past 30 years. Resilience is progressively increasing by virtue of a continuous increase in medical institutions, fixed asset investments and salary levels of employees. These determinants contribute to the overall downward trend of social vulnerability for Shenzhen. Exposure and sensitivity increased slowly with some fluctuation, causing the changes of social responsibility to transpire.

Huaming Yu et al.
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Short summary
This study establishes an indicator system for social vulnerability evaluation of storm surges for coastal cities. The indicator system is applied to Shenzhen, China and socio-economic impacts are discovered in the results. Exposure, sensitivity and resilience all show an increasing trend from 1986 to 2016, as resilience accounts for the largest increase and is connected to a decreasing social vulnerability trend. The reduction of social vulnerability can be achieved by strengthening resilience.
This study establishes an indicator system for social vulnerability evaluation of storm surges...
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