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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-284
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-284
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 09 Oct 2019

Submitted as: research article | 09 Oct 2019

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Assessing potential storm tide inundation hazard under climate change: a case study of Southeast China coast

Bingchuan Nie1,2, Qingyong Wuxi3,4, Jiachun Li3,4, and Feng Xu1,2 Bingchuan Nie et al.
  • 1School of Civil Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China
  • 2Beijing's Key Laboratory of Structural Wind Engineering and Urban Wind Environment, Beijing 100044, China
  • 3Key Laboratory for Mechanics in Fluid Solid Coupling Systems, Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
  • 4School of Engineering Science, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Abstract. A methodology for assessing the storm tide inundation under TCI (tropical cyclone intensification) and SLR (sea level rise) is proposed, which integrates the trend analysis, numerical analysis and GIS-based analysis. In the trend analysis, the potential TCI and SLR can be estimated based on the long-term historical data of TC (tropical cyclone) and MSL (mean sea level) considering the non-stationary and spatially non-uniform effect; the numerical simulation is relied on the ADCIRC+SWAN model, which is capable of taking into account the tide-surge-wave coupling effect to improve the precision of water elevation prediction; the water elevation is then analyzed on the GIS platform, the potential inundation regions can be identified. Based on this methodology, a case study for the Southeast China coast, one of the storm surge prone areas in China, is presented. The results show that the high water elevation tends to occur in the bays and around the estuaries, the maximal water elevations caused by the typhoon wind of 100-year recurrence period can reach as high as 6.06 m, 5.82 m and 5.67 m around Aojiang, Feiyunjiang and Oujiang river estuaries, respectively. Non-stationary TCI and SLR due to climate change can further deteriorate the situation and enhance the risk of inundation there, i.e. the potential inundation area would expand by 108 % to about 798 km2 compared with the situation without considering TCI and SLR. In addition, the remotely sensed maps and inundation durations of the hardest hit regions are provided, which will aid the prevention and mitigation of storm tide inundation hazard and future coastal management there.

Bingchuan Nie et al.
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Short summary
For storm surge, the most hazardous coastal event, the challenge of climate change effect should be dealt with urgently. A methodology integrating trend analysis, numerical analysis and GIS-based analysis is proposed for assessing the storm tide inundation under Tropical Cyclone Intensification and Sea Level Rise. The inundation details of the hardest hit regions are provided quantitatively. Comparison shows that TCI and SLR can deteriorate the risks remarkably, e.g. double the inundation area.
For storm surge, the most hazardous coastal event, the challenge of climate change effect should...
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