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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-278
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-278
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: brief communication 15 Oct 2019

Submitted as: brief communication | 15 Oct 2019

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Evidence of preliminary prognosis of appearance of catastrophic earthquake and strong tsunami in the region of Tarapacá, Chile

Raissa K. Mazova1,2, Jorge F. Van Den Bosch3, Natalia A. Baranova4, and Gustavo A. Oses5 Raissa K. Mazova et al.
  • 1Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University named after R.E. Alekseeva, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia
  • 2Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (MIPT) 141701 Moscow, Russia
  • 3Engineering Center Mitigation Natural Catastrophes Faculty of Engineering. 1240000 Antofagasta, Chile
  • 4Auriga, 6/6 Nartova st., office 829, 603104 Nizhny Novgorod, Russia
  • 5Engineering Center Mitigation Natural Catastrophes Faculty of Engineering. 1240000 Antofagasta, Chile

Abstract. Are analyzed the catastrophic seismic events near Chilean coast and generated by them tsunami 1 April 2014 to north of Iquique with magnitude 8.2. It is noted that event occurred 1 April 2014 was in fact predicted in work (Mazova and Ramirez 1999), in which there were analyzed all strongest Chilean tsunamigenic earthquakes with sources near the Chilean coast. Analysis of catastrophic earthquakes and tsunamis in given region, localization of source of historical earthquakes and character of generated by them tsunami waves permitted authors in that time to make a conclusion about possibility of repeated catastrophic earthquake and tsunami in near 10–20 years. The events near Iquique and Arica city in April 2014 are in this time period. Thus, the evidences, presented in this work, support preliminary prognosis made by authors in 1999.

Raissa K. Mazova et al.
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Raissa K. Mazova et al.
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Short summary
The 2014 tsunami off the coast of northern Chile are analyzed, knowing that there have been very destructive pan-oceanic tsunamis in the past, It was also forecast in 1999, this tsunami has been simulated taking into account two movements of the seabed, one as a single block and the second as several blocks, as a result it can be seen that the second way of simulating is closer to the measures recorded by tide gauges, also the spectral analysis allowed knowing the characteristics of the flood.
The 2014 tsunami off the coast of northern Chile are analyzed, knowing that there have been very...
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