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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-277
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-277
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 30 Sep 2019

Submitted as: research article | 30 Sep 2019

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A revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal NHESS and is expected to appear here in due course.

Regional frequency analysis of extreme storm surges using the extremogram approach

Marc Andreevsky1, Yasser Hamdi2, Samuel Griolet3, Pietro Bernardara4, and Roberto Frau1 Marc Andreevsky et al.
  • 1Department EDF-R&D-LNHE, Chatou, France
  • 2Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, Fontenay-Aux-Roses, France
  • 3Polytech Lyon, Rochetaillée sur Saône, France
  • 4EDF Energy R&D, UK Center, SW1E5JL, UK

Abstract. To resist marine submersion, coastal protection must be designed by taking into account the most accurate estimate of the return levels of extreme events, such as storm surges. However, because of the paucity of data, local statistical analyses often lead to poor frequency estimations. Regional Frequency Analysis (RFA) reduces the uncertainties associated with these estimations, by extending the dataset from local (only available data at the target site) to regional (data at all the neighboring sites including the target site) and by assuming, at the scale of a region, a similar extremal behavior. RFA, based on the index flood method, assumes that, in a homogeneous region, observations at sites, normalized by a local index, follow the same probability distribution. In this work, the spatial extremogram approach is used to form a physically homogeneous region centered on the target site. The approach is applied on a database of extreme skew storm surges and used to carry out a RFA.

Marc Andreevsky et al.

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Interactive discussion

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Marc Andreevsky et al.

Marc Andreevsky et al.

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Latest update: 30 May 2020
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Short summary
A methodology to perform a regional frequency analysis centred on a target site is proposed. The spatial-extremogram technic is used to form physical and statistical homogeneous region around the site of interest. This is of fundamental importance to conduct more properly a regional analysis. A regional frequency estimation of extreme skew storm surges in the French coasts is carried out.
A methodology to perform a regional frequency analysis centred on a target site is proposed. The...
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