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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-276
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-276
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: brief communication 26 Sep 2019

Submitted as: brief communication | 26 Sep 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta

Heiko Apel1, Mai Khiem2, Nguyen Hong Quan3, and To Quang Toan4 Heiko Apel et al.
  • 1Section Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geoscience, Potsdam, Germany
  • 2National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF), Ha Noi, Vietnam
  • 3Center of Water Management and Climate Change (WACC), Vietnam National University – Ho Chi Minh city (VNU - HCM), Ho Chi Minh city, Vietnam
  • 4Southern Institute of Water Resources Research (SIWRR), Ho Chi Minh city, Vietnam

Abstract. The Mekong Delta is the most important food production area in Vietnam. Salinity intrusion during the dry season poses a serious threat to agricultural production and local livelihoods. A seasonal forecast of salinity intrusion is required in order to mitigate the negative effects. This communication present a simple statistical seasonal forecast model able to predict the salinity intrusion up to 9 months ahead with high skill. The model can thus be used as a basis for timely adaptation and mitigation planning, which is urgently needed for the imminent severe salinity intrusion expected in spring 2020.

Heiko Apel et al.
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Status: open (until 25 Nov 2019)
Status: open (until 25 Nov 2019)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Heiko Apel et al.
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Short summary
This study deals with salinity intrusion in the Mekong delta, a pressing issue in the third largest river delta on Earth. It presents a simple, efficient, and cross validated seasonal forecast model for salinity intrusion during the dry season based on Logistic Regression using ENSO34 or Standardized Streamflow Index SSI as predictors. The model performs exceptionally well, enabling a reliable forecast of critical salinity threshold exceedance with up to 9 months prior to the dry season.
This study deals with salinity intrusion in the Mekong delta, a pressing issue in the third...
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