Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 2.883 IF 2.883
  • IF 5-year value: 3.321 IF 5-year
    3.321
  • CiteScore value: 3.07 CiteScore
    3.07
  • SNIP value: 1.336 SNIP 1.336
  • IPP value: 2.80 IPP 2.80
  • SJR value: 1.024 SJR 1.024
  • Scimago H <br class='hide-on-tablet hide-on-mobile'>index value: 81 Scimago H
    index 81
  • h5-index value: 43 h5-index 43
Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-253
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-253
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 01 Aug 2019

Submitted as: research article | 01 Aug 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Changes in flood damage with global warming in the east coast of Spain

Maria Cortès1,2, Marco Turco3, Philip Ward4, Josep A. Sánchez-Espigares5, Lorenzo Alfieri6, and Maria Carmen Llasat1,2 Maria Cortès et al.
  • 1Department of Applied Physics, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, 08028, Spain
  • 2Water Research Institute (IdRA), University of Barcelona, Barcelona, 08001, Spain
  • 3Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Carrer de Jordi Girona 29-31, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
  • 4Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
  • 5Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Technical University of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain
  • 6European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Directorate Space, Security and Migration, Ispra, Italy

Abstract. Flooding is one of the main natural hazard in the world and causes huge economic and human impacts. Assessing the flood damage in the Mediterranean region is of great importance, especially because its large vulnerability to climate change. Most past floods affecting the region were caused by intense precipitation events, thus the analysis of the links between precipitation and flood damage is crucial. The main objective of this paper is to estimate changes in the probability of damaging flood events with a global warming of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C above preindustrial levels and taking into account different socioeconomic scenarios in two western Mediterranean regions, namely Catalonia and the Valencian Community. To do this, we analyse the relationship between heavy precipitation and flood damage estimates from insurance datasets in those two regions. We consider an ensemble of seven regional climate model simulations spanning the period 1976–2100 to evaluate precipitation changes and to drive a logistic model that links precipitation and flood damage estimates, and thus to derive statistics under present and future climates. Furthermore, we incorporate population projections based on 5 different socioeconomic scenarios. The results show a general increase in the probability of a damaging event for most of the cases and in both regions of study, with larger increments when higher warming is considered. Moreover, this increase is higher when both climate and population change are included. When population is considered, all the periods and models show a clearly higher increase in the probability of damaging events, which is statistically significant for most of the cases.

Our findings highlight the need for limiting the global warming as much as possible, as well as the importance of including variables that consider change in both climate and socioeconomic conditions in the analysis of flood damage.

Maria Cortès et al.
Interactive discussion
Status: open (until 26 Sep 2019)
Status: open (until 26 Sep 2019)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
[Subscribe to comment alert] Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Maria Cortès et al.
Maria Cortès et al.
Viewed  
Total article views: 195 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
154 40 1 195 0 2
  • HTML: 154
  • PDF: 40
  • XML: 1
  • Total: 195
  • BibTeX: 0
  • EndNote: 2
Views and downloads (calculated since 01 Aug 2019)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 01 Aug 2019)
Viewed (geographical distribution)  
Total article views: 91 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 91 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Cited  
Saved  
No saved metrics found.
Discussed  
No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 22 Aug 2019
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
The main objective of this paper is to estimate changes in the probability of damaging flood events with a global warming of 1.5, 2 and 3 ºC above preindustrial levels and taking into account different socioeconomic scenarios in two western Mediterranean regions. The results show a general increase in the probability of a damaging event with larger increments when higher warming is considered. Moreover, this increase is higher when both climate and population change are included.
The main objective of this paper is to estimate changes in the probability of damaging flood...
Citation