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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-243
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-243
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 05 Sep 2019

Submitted as: research article | 05 Sep 2019

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis For Tuzla Test Site Using Monte Carlo Simulations

H. Basak Bayraktar1,2,3 and Ceren Ozer Sozdinler4 H. Basak Bayraktar and Ceren Ozer Sozdinler
  • 1Department of Geophysics, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Bogazici University, Istanbul, 34684, Turkey
  • 2Department of Physics Ettore Pancini, University of Naples Federico II, Naples, 80126, Italy
  • 3Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy
  • 4Institute of Education, Research and Regional Cooperation for Crisis Management Shikoku, Kagawa University, Takamatsu, 760-8521, Japan

Abstract. In this study, time-dependent probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is performed for Tuzla, Istanbul in the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, using various earthquake scenarios of Prince Island Fault within next 50 and 100 years. Monte Carlo (MC) simulation technique is used to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue which includes earthquakes having magnitudes between Mw 6.5 and 7.1. This interval defines the minimum and maximum magnitudes for the fault in the case of entire fault rupture which depends on the characteristic fault model. Based on this catalogue, probability of occurrence and associated tsunami wave heights are calculated for each event. The study associates the probabilistic approach with tsunami numerical modelling. Tsunami numerical code NAMI DANCE was used for tsunami simulations. According to the results of the analysis, distribution of probability of occurrence corresponding to tsunami hydrodynamic parameters are represented. Maximum positive and negative wave amplitudes show that tsunami wave heights up to 1 m have 65 % probability of exceedance for next 50 years and this value increases by 85 % in Tuzla region for next 100 years. Inundation depth also exceeds 1 m in the region with probabilities of occurrence of 60 % and 80 % for next 50 and 100 years, respectively. Moreover, Probabilistic inundations maps are generated to investigate inundated zones and the amount of water penetrated inland. Probability of exceedance of 0.3 m wave height, ranges between 10 % and 75 % according to these probabilistic inundation maps and the maximum inundation distance calculated among entire earthquake catalogue is 60 m in this test site. Furthermore, at synthetic gauge points which are selected along the western coast of the Istanbul by including Tuzla coasts. Tuzla is one of the area that shows high probability exceedance of 0.3 m wave height, which is around 90 %, for the next 50 years while this probability reaches up to more than 95 % for the next 100 years.

H. Basak Bayraktar and Ceren Ozer Sozdinler
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H. Basak Bayraktar and Ceren Ozer Sozdinler
H. Basak Bayraktar and Ceren Ozer Sozdinler
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Latest update: 16 Nov 2019
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Short summary
In this study, probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis was done for Tuzla region in the case of Prince Island fault rupture, which is the closest fault zone to the megacity Istanbul and it has been silent for centuries. Synthetic earthquake catalog is generated using Monte Carlo simulation technique and these events are used for tsunami analysis. The results of the study show that the probability of exceedance 0.3 m tsunami wave height is bigger than 90 % for the next 50 and 100 years.
In this study, probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis was done for Tuzla region in the case of...
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