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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-232
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-232
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 02 Sep 2019

Submitted as: research article | 02 Sep 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Evaluation of two hydrometeorogical ensemble strategies for flash flood forecasting over a catchment of the eastern Pyrenees

Hélène Roux1, Arnau Amengual2, Romu Romero2, Ernest Bladé3, and Marcos Sanz-Ramos3 Hélène Roux et al.
  • 1Institut de Mécanique des Fluides de Toulouse (IMFT), Université de Toulouse, CNRS – Toulouse, France
  • 2Grup de Meteorologia, Departament de Física, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Palma, Mallorca, Spain
  • 3Institut FLUMEN, E.T.S. d'Eng. De Camins, Canals i Ports de Barcelona, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain

Abstract. This study aims at evaluating the performances of flash flood forecasts issued from deterministic and ensemble meteorological prognostic systems. The hydro-meteorological modeling chain includes the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) forcing the rainfall-runoff model MARINE dedicated to flash flood. Two distinct ensemble prediction systems accounting for (i) perturbed initial and lateral boundary conditions of the meteorological state and (ii) mesoscale model physical parameterizations, have been implemented on the Agly catchment of the Eastern Pyrenees with three sub-catchments exhibiting different rainfall regimes.

Different evaluations of the performance of the hydrometeorological strategies have been performed: (i) verification of short-range ensemble prediction systems and corresponding stream flow forecasts, for a better understanding of how forecasts behave, (ii) usual measures derived from a contingency table approach, to test an alert threshold exceedance, and (iii) overall evaluation of the hydro-meteorological chain using the Continuous Rank Probability Score, for a general quantification of the ensemble performances.

Results show that the overall discharge forecast is improved by both ensemble strategies with respect to the deterministic forecast. Threshold exceedance detections for flood warning also benefit from large hydro-meteorological ensemble spread. There are no substantial differences between both ensemble strategies on these test cases in terms both of the issuance of flood warnings and the overall performances, suggesting that both sources of external-scale uncertainty are important to take into account.

Hélène Roux et al.
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Hélène Roux et al.
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Short summary
The performances of flash flood forecasts are evaluated using a meteorological model forcing a rainfall-runoff model. Both deterministic (single forecast of the most likely weather) and ensemble forecasts (set or ensemble of forecasts) have been produced on three sub-catchments of the Eastern Pyrenees exhibiting different rainfall regimes. Results show that both overall discharge forecast and flood warning are improved by the ensemble strategies with respect to the deterministic forecast.
The performances of flash flood forecasts are evaluated using a meteorological model forcing a...
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