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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-186
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-186
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 08 Jul 2019

Submitted as: research article | 08 Jul 2019

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Tectonic Origin Tsunami Scenario Database for the Marmara Region

Ceren Ozer Sozdinler1, Ocal Necmioglu2, H. Basak Bayraktar2,3, and Nurcan M. Ozel2,4 Ceren Ozer Sozdinler et al.
  • 1Institute of Education, Research and Regional Cooperation for Crisis Management Shikoku, Kagawa University, Takamatsu, 760-8521, Japan
  • 2Department of Geophysics, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Bogazici University, Istanbul, 34684, Turkey
  • 3Department of Physics ``Ettore Pancini'', University of Naples Federico II, Naples, 80126, Italy
  • 4International Monitoring Systems, Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization, Vienna, 1400, Austria

Abstract. This study presents the first tsunami scenario database in Marmara Sea, Turkey referring to 30 different earthquake scenarios obtained with the combinations of 32 possible fault segments. The fault mechanisms in Marmara Sea have been studied in detail within FP-7 MARSite project, which were derived from various databases and literature review. Tsunami simulations have been performed according to these defined 30 earthquake scenarios by tsunami numerical code NAMI DANCE (NAMIDANCE, 2011) which solves Nonlinear Shallow Water Equations (NLSWE) using leap-frog scheme. For each earthquake scenario, tsunami hydrodynamic parameters, mainly maximum water surface elevations, arrival time of first wave and maximum wave, and water level fluctuations were calculated at 1333 synthetic gauge points meticulously selected along the coasts of Marmara Sea. The overall simulation results indicate that maximum expected wave heights due to these earthquake scenarios are between 1 m and 2 m and even more than 2 m at some locations along Marmara coasts, such as Kadikoy, Halic and Silivri coasts in Istanbul and Bayramdere and Kursunlu districts along the coasts of Bursa province. The estimated maximum water levels at Bostanci, Pendik and Buyukada coasts in Istanbul, Cinarcik and Bandirma towns and at the entrance of Izmit Bay would reach up to 2 m. Tekirdag coasts and Buyuk Cekmece and Bakirkoy coasts in Istanbul and Yalova coasts would experience maximum tsunami wave amplitudes around 1.5 m. The waves reach up to 1 m at Izmit and Gemlik Bays, Erdek Peninsula and Marmara Island. The overwiew of the results reveal that higher historical tsunami wave heights observed in Marmara Sea cannot be explained by only earthquake-generated tsunamis. Therefore, there is strong agreement on considering submarine landslides as the primary tsunami hazard component in the Marmara Sea as experienced during history and expected in the future.

Ceren Ozer Sozdinler et al.
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Short summary
We are presenting the first tsunami scenario database in the sea of Marmara, Turkey with comprehensive compilation of historical and empirical seismic data and numerical modeilng using NAMIDANCE in the frame of FP-7 MARSite project. Our main aim is to correlate with the operations of Tsunami Service Provider in KOERI. The results show that hazardous historical tsunamis in Marmara Sea cannot be explained by only earthquakes and submarine landslides should be considered as the primary component.
We are presenting the first tsunami scenario database in the sea of Marmara, Turkey with...
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