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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-175
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-175
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 12 Aug 2019

Submitted as: research article | 12 Aug 2019

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Establishment and characteristics analysis of a crop-drought vulnerability curve: a case study of European winter wheat

Yanshen Wu1, Hao Guo1, Anyu Zhang1, and Jing'ai Wang1,2 Yanshen Wu et al.
  • 1School of Geography, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
  • 2Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, MOE, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Abstract. As an essential component of drought risk, crop-drought vulnerability refers to the degree of the adverse response of a crop to a drought event. Different drought intensities and environments can cause significant differences in crop yield losses. Therefore, quantifying the drought vulnerability and then identifying its spatial distribution pattern will contribute to understanding vulnerability and the development of risk-reduction strategies. We select the European winter wheat growing area as the study area and a 0.5° × 0.5° grid as the basic assessment unit. Winter wheat drought vulnerability curves are established based on the Erosion-Productivity Impact Calculator model simulation. Their loss transmutation and loss extent characteristics are quantitatively analyzed by the key points and cumulative loss rate, respectively, and are then synthetically identified VIA K-means clustering. The results show the following. (1) The regional yield loss rate starts to rapidly increase from 0.13 when the drought index reaches 0.18 and then converts to a relatively stable stage with the value of 0.74 when the drought index reaches 0.66. (2) The stage transitions of the vulnerability curve lag in the southern mountain area, indicating a stronger tolerance to drought in the system, in contrast to the Pod Plain. (3) According to the loss characteristics during the initial, development and attenuation stages, the vulnerability curves can be divided into five clusters, namely, Low-Low-Low, Low-Low-Medium, Medium-Medium-Medium, High-High-High and Low-Medium-High loss types, corresponding to the spatial distribution from low latitude to high latitude and from mountain to plain. It is recommended to improve the integrated mitigation capability in the Medium-Medium-Medium-loss and High-High-High -loss areas and to develop the ability to mitigate droughts in the 0.3–0.6 intensity range, as non-engineering measures for the droughts greater than 0.6 intensity in low-medium-high areas are needed.

Yanshen Wu et al.
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Short summary
To understand the vulnerability from the perspective of disaster-causing mechanism, the paper constructs grid-scale European winter wheat drought vulnerability curves based on crop growth model simulation, and carries out spatial analysis VIA curve feature values extraction and clustering. These vulnerability curves show latitude and altitude zonal differences, and can be divided into five categories. The results can provide reference for drought risk zoning and risk management.
To understand the vulnerability from the perspective of disaster-causing mechanism, the paper...
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