Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 2.883 IF 2.883
  • IF 5-year value: 3.321 IF 5-year
    3.321
  • CiteScore value: 3.07 CiteScore
    3.07
  • SNIP value: 1.336 SNIP 1.336
  • IPP value: 2.80 IPP 2.80
  • SJR value: 1.024 SJR 1.024
  • Scimago H <br class='hide-on-tablet hide-on-mobile'>index value: 81 Scimago H
    index 81
  • h5-index value: 43 h5-index 43
Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-141
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-141
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 20 May 2019

Submitted as: research article | 20 May 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript is under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Quantification of climate change impact on dam failure risk under hydrological scenarios: a case study from a Spanish dam

Javier Fluixá-Sanmartín1, Adrián Morales-Torres2, Ignacio Escuder-Bueno3, and Javier Paredes-Arquiola3 Javier Fluixá-Sanmartín et al.
  • 1Centre de Recherche sur l’Environnement Alpin (CREALP), Sion, 1951, Switzerland
  • 2iPresas Risk Analysis, Valencia, 46023, Spain
  • 3Department of Hydraulic Engineering and Environment, Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), Valencia, 46022, Spain

Abstract. Dam safety is increasingly subjected to the influence of climate change. Its impacts must be assessed through the integration of the various effects acting on each aspect, considering their interdependencies, rather than by a simple accumulation of separate impacts. This serves as a dam safety management supporting tool to assess the vulnerability of the dam to climate change and to define adaptation strategies under an evolutive dam failure risk management framework. This article presents a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change on the safety of a Spanish dam under hydrological scenarios, integrating the various projected effects acting on each component of the risk, from the input hydrology to the consequences of the outflow hydrograph. In particular, the results of 21 regional climate models encompassing three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) have been used to calculate the risk evolution of the dam until the end of the 21st century. Results show a progressive deterioration of the dam failure risk, for most of the cases contemplated, especially for the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Moreover, the individual analysis of each risk component shows that the alteration of the expected inflows has the greater influence on the final risk. The approach followed in this paper can serve as a useful guidebook for dam owners and dam safety practitioners in the analysis of other study cases.

Javier Fluixá-Sanmartín et al.
Interactive discussion
Status: final response (author comments only)
Status: final response (author comments only)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
[Login for Authors/Editors] [Subscribe to comment alert] Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Javier Fluixá-Sanmartín et al.
Javier Fluixá-Sanmartín et al.
Viewed  
Total article views: 379 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
302 70 7 379 5 8
  • HTML: 302
  • PDF: 70
  • XML: 7
  • Total: 379
  • BibTeX: 5
  • EndNote: 8
Views and downloads (calculated since 20 May 2019)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 20 May 2019)
Viewed (geographical distribution)  
Total article views: 270 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 267 with geography defined and 3 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Cited  
Saved  
No saved metrics found.
Discussed  
No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 22 Aug 2019
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
Climate change is likely to affect the different factors driving dam failure risks. This article analyses the impact of climate change on the safety of a Spanish dam. Results show a progressive deterioration of the dam failure risk, mainly due to an alteration of the hydrological regime. The approach followed in this paper can serve as a useful guidebook for dam owners and dam safety practitioners in the analysis of other study cases.
Climate change is likely to affect the different factors driving dam failure risks. This article...
Citation