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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-139
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-139
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 27 May 2019

Submitted as: research article | 27 May 2019

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Tsunami risk assessment for multiple buildings by considering spatial correlation of wave height using copulas

Yo Fukutani1, Shuji Moriguchi2, Kenjiro Terada2, Takuma Kotani3, Yu Otake4, and Toshikazu Kitano5 Yo Fukutani et al.
  • 1College of Science and Engineering, Kanto Gakuin University, Yokohama, 236-8501, Japan
  • 2International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, Sendai, 980-8572, Japan
  • 3Nippon Koei Co., Ltd, Ibaraki, 300-1259, Japan
  • 4Faculty of Engineering, Niigata University, Niigata, 950-2102, Japan
  • 5Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Nagoya, 466-8555, Japan

Abstract. It is necessary to consider simultaneous damage to multiple buildings when performing probabilistic risk assessment for a portfolio of buildings. In this study, we demonstrate tsunami risk assessment for two buildings using copulas of tsunami hazards that consider the nonlinear spatial correlation of tsunami wave heights. First, we simulated the wave heights considering uncertainty by varying the slip amount and fault depths. The frequency distributions of the wave heights were evaluated via the response surface method. Based on the distributions and numerically simulated wave heights, we estimated the optimal copula via maximum likelihood estimation. Subsequently, we evaluated the simultaneous distributions of the wave heights and the aggregate damage probabilities via the marginal distributions and the estimated copulas. As a result, the aggregate damage probability of the ninety-ninth percentile value was approximately 1.0 % higher and the maximum value was approximately 3.0 % higher while considering the wave height correlation. We clearly showed that the usefulness of copula modeling considering the wave height correlation in evaluating risk of building portfolio. We only demonstrated the evaluation method for two buildings, but the effect of the wave height correlation on the results is expected to increase if more points are targeted.

Yo Fukutani et al.
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Short summary
We demonstrate a method of tsunami risk assessment for two buildings using copulas of tsunami hazards that can consider the nonlinear spatial correlation of wave heights. As a result, the maximum value of expected aggregate damage probability was approximately 3.0 % higher in the case of considering the wave height correlation. We clearly showed the importance of considering wave height correlation and the usefulness of copula modeling in evaluating tsunami risk of building portfolio.
We demonstrate a method of tsunami risk assessment for two buildings using copulas of tsunami...
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