Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 2.281 IF 2.281
  • IF 5-year value: 2.693 IF 5-year 2.693
  • CiteScore value: 2.43 CiteScore 2.43
  • SNIP value: 1.193 SNIP 1.193
  • SJR value: 0.965 SJR 0.965
  • IPP value: 2.31 IPP 2.31
  • h5-index value: 40 h5-index 40
  • Scimago H index value: 73 Scimago H index 73
Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-395
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-395
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 21 Dec 2018

Research article | 21 Dec 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Projected changes to extreme freezing precipitation and design ice loads over North America based on a large ensemble of Canadian regional climate model simulations

Dae Il Jeong1, Alex J. Cannon2, and Xuebin Zhang1 Dae Il Jeong et al.
  • 1Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario, M3H 5T4, Canada
  • 2Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, V8W 2Y2, Canada

Abstract. Atmospheric ice accretion caused by freezing precipitation (FP) can lead to severe damage and failure of buildings and infrastructure. This study investigates projected changes to extreme ice loads – those used to design infrastructure over North America (NA) – for future periods of specified global mean temperature change (GMTC), relative to a recent 1986–2016 period, using a large 50 member initial condition ensemble of the CanRCM4 regional climate model driven by CanESM2 under the RCP8.5 scenario. The analysis is based on three-hourly ice accretions on horizontal, vertical, and radial surfaces calculated based on FP diagnosed by the offline Bourgouin algorithm as well as wind speed during FP. The CanRCM4 ensemble projects an increase in future design ice loads for most of northern NA and decreases for most of southern NA and some northeastern coastal regions. These changes are mainly caused by regional increases in future upper level and surface temperatures associated with global warming. Projected changes in design ice thickness are also affected by changes in future precipitation intensity and surface wind speed. Changes in upper level and surface temperature conditions for FP occurrence in CanRCM4 are in broad agreement with those from nine global climate models, but display regional differences under the same level of global warming, indicating that a larger multi-model, multi-scenario ensemble may be needed to better account for additional sources of structural and scenario uncertainty. Increases in ice accretion for latitudes higher than 40°N are substantial and would have clear implications for future building and infrastructure design.

Dae Il Jeong et al.
Interactive discussion
Status: open (until 25 Feb 2019)
Status: open (until 25 Feb 2019)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
[Subscribe to comment alert] Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Dae Il Jeong et al.
Dae Il Jeong et al.
Viewed  
Total article views: 165 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
135 28 2 165 0 0
  • HTML: 135
  • PDF: 28
  • XML: 2
  • Total: 165
  • BibTeX: 0
  • EndNote: 0
Views and downloads (calculated since 21 Dec 2018)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 21 Dec 2018)
Viewed (geographical distribution)  
Total article views: 63 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 63 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Cited  
Saved  
No saved metrics found.
Discussed  
No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 21 Jan 2019
Publications Copernicus
Special issue
Download
Short summary
Atmospheric ice accretion caused by freezing precipitation leads to severe damage and failure of buildings and infrastructure. This study investigates projected changes to extreme ice loads used to design infrastructure over North America for future periods of specified global mean temperature change using a Canadian regional climate model. Increases in ice accretion for latitudes higher than 40° N are substantial and would have clear implications for future building and infrastructure design.
Atmospheric ice accretion caused by freezing precipitation leads to severe damage and failure of...
Citation
Share