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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-390
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-390
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 25 Mar 2019

Research article | 25 Mar 2019

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Improvement of typhoon wind hazard model and its sensitivity analysis

Yunxia Guo1,2,4, Yijun Hou1,3,4, and Peng Qi1,3,4 Yunxia Guo et al.
  • 1Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, 7 Nanhai Road, 266071, China
  • 2University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 19A Yuquan Road, 100049 China
  • 3Laboratory for Ocean and Climate Dynamics, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, 1 Wenhai Road, 266237, China
  • 4Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, 7 Nanhai Road, 266071, P. R. China

Abstract. Typhoons are one of the most serious natural disasters that occur annually on China’s southeast coast. This paper describes a technique for analyzing the typhoon wind hazard based on the empirical track model. Existing simplified and non-simplified typhoon empirical track models are improved, and the improved tracking models are shown to significantly increase the correlation in regression analysis. We also investigate quantitatively the sensitivity of the typhoon wind hazard model. The effects of different typhoon decay models, the simplified and non-simplified typhoon tracking models, different statistical models for the radius to maximum winds (Rmax) and Holland pressure profile parameter (B), and different extreme value distributions on the predicted extreme wind speed of different return periods are all investigated. Comparisons of estimated typhoon wind speeds for 50-year and 100-year return periods under the influence of different factors are presented. The different models of Rmax and B are found to have greatest impact on the prediction of extreme wind speed, followed by the extreme value distributions, typhoon tracking models, and typhoon decay models. This paper constitutes a useful reference for predicting extreme wind speed using the empirical track model.

Yunxia Guo et al.
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Short summary
Typhoons are one of the most serious natural disasters that occur annually on China's southeast coast. Therefore, it is very important to analyze the typhoon hazard using typhoon wind hazard modeling and simulation methods. This paper describes a technique for analyzing the typhoon wind hazard based on the empirical track model. Existing simplified and non-simplified typhoon empirical track models are improved. Besides we investigate the influence of different factors on the predicted wind speed
Typhoons are one of the most serious natural disasters that occur annually on China's southeast...
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