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Discussion papers | Copyright
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Research article 16 Feb 2018

Research article | 16 Feb 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript is under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimation in a Humid Climate

Zahra Afzali Gorouh, Bahram Bakhtiari, and Kourosh Qaderi Zahra Afzali Gorouh et al.
  • Department of Water Engineering, Collage of Agriculture, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran

Abstract. Due to the importance of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for designing and planning hydraulic structures, the aim of this study is the estimation of 24-hour PMP (PMP24) by using the statistical and physical methods in a humid climate of Qareh-Su Basin which is located in the northern part of Iran. For statistical estimate of PMP, the equations of empirical curves of Hershfield method were extracted. Then the standard and revised approaches of Hershfield method were written in JAVA programming language, as a user friendly and multi-platform application called the PMP Calculator. Convergence model was considered to calculate PMP by physical method. The depth–area–duration (DAD) curves were extracted to estimate PMP24 using physical method and then PMP24 was estimated for each storm. The results showed that for the standard and revised approaches, Km was found to be varied the range of 17–18.0 and 2.2–5.3, respectively. The maximum values of PMP24 for the first approach was obtained 447.7mm and for second approach was 200.7mm. Using the physical method, PMP24 was 143.1mm. The results of this study will be helpful for planning, designing, and management of hydraulic structures and water resources projects in the study area.

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Zahra Afzali Gorouh et al.
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Zahra Afzali Gorouh et al.
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