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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-373
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-373
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 11 Feb 2019

Research article | 11 Feb 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Annual Characterization of Regional Hydrological Drought using Auxiliary Information under Global Warming Scenario

Zulfiqar Ali1,2, Ijaz Hussain1, and Muhammad Faisal3,4 Zulfiqar Ali et al.
  • 1Department of Statistics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan
  • 2Johann Bernoulli Institute (JBI) Rijksuniversiteit Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
  • 3Faculty of Health Studies, University of Bradford, BD7 1DP Bradford, UK, Bradford
  • 4Institute for Health Research, Bradford Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Bradford, UK

Abstract. Climate change and global warming scenario is likely to increase worsening drought across the World. Drought is a complex natural hazard, which is a composition of many factors such as hydrological, meteorological and agricultural. Accurate characterization of hydrological drought at regional level is challenging. Standardized Drought Indices (SDI) is commonly used method for drought characterization and monitoring. In this study, we proposed a hydrological drought index, which used improved monthly precipitation estimates under global warming scenario. As monthly precipitation records have significant role in regional drought characterization. Therefore, this research suggests auxiliary information as local weights to improve monthly precipitation records in terms of dependence characteristic of temperature with precipitation records under regression estimation settings. Consequently, we proposed a new method of hydrological drought assessment The Locally Weighted Standardized Precipitation Index (LWSDI). We assessed hydrological drought using LWSDI on 10 meteorological stations located in various climatological regions of Pakistan. We compared and evaluated performance of LWSDI with Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 12-month time scale based on Pearson correlation. We found high positive correlation between the LWSDI and existing methods (SPI and SPEI). In summary, improved estimates of precipitation can strengthen drought monitoring system.

Zulfiqar Ali et al.
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Short summary
Climate change and global warming scenario increase the odds of worsening drought. Therefore, precise characterization and regional monitoring of drought are the major challenge. In this paper, we provide a new way to formulate and improve temporal data of precipitation for the Standardized Drought Index (SDI) type tools. Results show that improved estimates are good candidates for modelling and monitoring hydrological drought with more precision.
Climate change and global warming scenario increase the odds of worsening drought. Therefore,...
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