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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-369
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-369
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 05 Feb 2019

Research article | 05 Feb 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Reducing uncertainty bounds of two-dimensional hydrodynamic model output by constraining model roughness

Punit Kumar Bhola, Jorge Leandro, and Markus Disse Punit Kumar Bhola et al.
  • Chair of Hydrology and River Basin Management, Department of Civil, Geo and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Munich, Arcisstrasse 21, 80333 Munich, Germany

Abstract. The consideration of uncertainties in flood risk assessment has received increasing attention over the last two decades. However, the assessment is not reported in practice due to the lack of best practices and too wide uncertainty bounds. We present a method to constrain the model roughness based on measured water levels and reduce the uncertainty bounds of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model. Results show that the maximum uncertainty in roughness generated an uncertainty bound in the water level of 1.26 m (90 % confidence interval) and by constraining roughness, the bounds can be reduced as much as 0.92 m.

Punit Kumar Bhola et al.
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Punit Kumar Bhola et al.
Punit Kumar Bhola et al.
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Short summary
The paper study investigates the use of measured water levels to reduce uncertainties bounds of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model output. Uncertainty assessment generally is not reported in practice due to the lack of best practices and too wide uncertainty bounds. Hence, a novel method to reduce the bounds by constraining the model parameter, mainly roughness, is presented. The operational practitioners as well as researchers benefits from the study in the field of flood risk management.
The paper study investigates the use of measured water levels to reduce uncertainties bounds of...
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