Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 2.281 IF 2.281
  • IF 5-year value: 2.693 IF 5-year
    2.693
  • CiteScore value: 2.43 CiteScore
    2.43
  • SNIP value: 1.193 SNIP 1.193
  • SJR value: 0.965 SJR 0.965
  • IPP value: 2.31 IPP 2.31
  • h5-index value: 40 h5-index 40
  • Scimago H <br class='hide-on-tablet hide-on-mobile'>index value: 73 Scimago H
    index 73
Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-347
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-347
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 09 Jan 2019

Research article | 09 Jan 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

What's streamflow got to do with it? A probabilistic simulation of the competing oceanographic and fluvial processes driving extreme along-river water levels

Katherine A. Serafin1,3, Peter Ruggiero1, Kai A. Parker2, and David F. Hill2 Katherine A. Serafin et al.
  • 1College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA
  • 2College of Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA
  • 3Present Address: Department of Geophysics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA

Abstract. Extreme water levels driving flooding in estuarine and coastal environments are often compound events, generated by many individual processes like waves, storm surge, streamflow, and tides. Despite this, extreme water levels are typically modeled in isolated open coast or estuarine environments, potentially mischaracterizing the true risk to flooding facing coastal communities. We explore the variability of extreme water levels near the tribal community of La Push, within the Quileute Indian Reservation on the Washington state coast where a river signal is apparent in tide gauge measurements during high discharge events. To estimate the influence of multivariate forcing on high water levels, we first develop a methodology for statistically simulating discharge and river-influenced water levels in the tide gauge. Next, we merge probabilistic simulations of joint still water level and discharge occurrences with a hydraulic model that simulates along-river water levels. This methodology produces water levels from thousands of combinations of events not necessarily captured in the observational record. We show that the 100-yr ocean or 100-yr streamflow event does not always produce the 100-yr along-river water level. Along specific sections of river, both still water level and streamflow are necessary for producing the 100-yr water level. Understanding the relative forcing of extreme water levels along an ocean-to-river gradient will better prepare communities within inlets and estuaries for the compounding impacts of various environmental forcing, especially when a combination of extreme or non-extreme forcing can result in an extreme event with significant impacts.

Katherine A. Serafin et al.
Interactive discussion
Status: open (until 28 Mar 2019)
Status: open (until 28 Mar 2019)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
[Subscribe to comment alert] Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Katherine A. Serafin et al.
Katherine A. Serafin et al.
Viewed  
Total article views: 268 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
225 39 4 268 4 2
  • HTML: 225
  • PDF: 39
  • XML: 4
  • Total: 268
  • BibTeX: 4
  • EndNote: 2
Views and downloads (calculated since 09 Jan 2019)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 09 Jan 2019)
Viewed (geographical distribution)  
Total article views: 153 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 152 with geography defined and 1 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Cited  
Saved  
No saved metrics found.
Discussed  
No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 18 Mar 2019
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
In coastal environments, extreme water levels driving flooding are often generated by many individual processes like storm surge, streamflow, and tides. To estimate flood drivers along a coastal river, we merge statistical simulations of ocean and river forcing with a hydraulic model to produce water levels. We find both ocean and river forcing are necessary for producing extreme flood levels like the 100-yr event, highlighting the need for considering compound events in flood risk assessments.
In coastal environments, extreme water levels driving flooding are often generated by many...
Citation