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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-343
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-343
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 09 Jan 2019

Research article | 09 Jan 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Ensemble flood simulation for a small dam catchment in Japan using nonhydrostatic model rainfalls. Part 2: Flood forecasting using 1600 member 4D-EnVAR predicted rainfalls

Kenichiro Kobayashi1, Apip2, Le Duc3,6, Tsutao Oizumi3,6, and Kazuo Saito4,5,6 Kenichiro Kobayashi et al.
  • 1Research Center for Urban Safety and Security, Kobe University, 1-1 Rokkodai-machi, Nada-ku, Kobe, 657-8501, Japan
  • 2Research Centre for Limnology, Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), Bogor, Indonesia
  • 3Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
  • 4Japan Meteorological Business Support Center, Tokyo, Japan
  • 5Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan
  • 6Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan

Abstract. This paper elaborated the feasibility of flood forecasting using a distributed rainfall-runoff model and huge number of ensemble rainfalls with an advanced data assimilation system. Specifically, 1600 ensemble rainfalls simulated by a four-dimensional ensemble variational assimilation system with the JMA nonhydrostatic model (4D-EnVAR-NHM) were given to the rainfall-runoff model to simulate the inflow discharge to a small dam catchment (Kasahori dam; approx. 70km2) in Niigata, Japan. The results exhibited that the ensemble flood forecasting can indicate the necessity of flood control operation and emergency flood operation with the occurrence probability and a lead time (e.g. 12 hours). Thus, the ensemble flood forecasting may be able to inform us the necessity of the early evacuation of the inhabitant living downstream of the dam e.g. half day before the occurrence. On the other hand, the results also showed that the exact forecasting to reproduce the discharge hydrograph several hours before the occurrence is yet difficult, and some optimization technique is necessary such as the selection of the good ensemble members.

Kenichiro Kobayashi et al.
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Status: open (until 06 Mar 2019)
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Kenichiro Kobayashi et al.
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Short summary
Feasibility of flood forecasting with 1600 rainfall forecasts was investigated. The rainfall forecasts were obtained from an advanced data assimilation system. The high probability of flood occurrence was predicted, which could not be possible by the operational forecast. The necessity of emergency flood operation was shown with a long leading time. This suggests it is worth to invest on increasing numbers of meteorological ensembles to improve flood forecasting.
Feasibility of flood forecasting with 1600 rainfall forecasts was investigated. The rainfall...
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