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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-295
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-295
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 23 Oct 2018

Research article | 23 Oct 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Re-evaluating safety risks of multifunctional dikes with a probabilistic risk framework

Richard Marijnissen1, Matthijs Kok2, Carolien Kroeze1, and Jantsje van Loon-Steensma1,2 Richard Marijnissen et al.
  • 1Water Systems and Global Change group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, P.O. Box 47 6700 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
  • 2Hydraulic Engineering, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, the Netherlands

Abstract. Multifunctional use of flood defences is often seen as a disadvantage for flood protection. Safety assessments of multifunctional dikes only require functions do not negatively affect safety but leave potential synergies untapped. This study synthesizes the new probabilistic approaches to evaluate the safety of multifunctional flood defences employed in the Netherlands after the introduction of the new Water Act and explores how this affects the assessed risk of flooding. While a traditional conservative approach does lead to safe assessments, a probabilistic approach assesses a higher protection level of the dike. Positive contributions of functions to safety can be included in a probabilistic approach even when in a critical state there is a negative contribution to safety. In a probabilistic approach the probability of such scenarios is made explicit. Multifunctional flood defences thereby are more safe than is expected from conservative assessments only.

Richard Marijnissen et al.
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Status: final response (author comments only)
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Richard Marijnissen et al.
Richard Marijnissen et al.
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Short summary
Flood defences have the potential to be integrated with many other functions. While assessments of multifunctional dikes are usually conservative, using a probabilistic framework allows for synergies to be integrated and the risks to be made explicit. This change leads to a better perspective on the protection level of a flood defence and the effectiveness of reinforcements, allowing for better implementation of multifunctional elements on flood defences.
Flood defences have the potential to be integrated with many other functions. While assessments...
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