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Discussion papers | Copyright
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 09 Oct 2018

Research article | 09 Oct 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Strategies to increase the accessibility of tsunami shelters enhances their adaptive capacity to risks in coastal port cities: The case of Nagoya City, Japan

Weitao Zhang1, Jiayu Wu2, and Yingxia Yun3 Weitao Zhang et al.
  • 1School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China
  • 2College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, China
  • 3School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China

Abstract. Coastal areas face a significant risk of tsunami after a nearby heavy earthquake. Comprehensive coastal port cities often complicate and intensify this risk, due to the high vulnerability of their communities and liabilities associated with secondary damage. Accessibility to tsunami shelters is a key measure of adaptive capacity in response to tsunami risks and should therefore be enhanced. This study integrates the hazards that create risk into two dimensions: hazard-product risk and hazard-affected risk. Specifically, the hazard-product risk measures the hazard occurrence's probability, intensity, duration, and extension in a system. The hazard-affected risk measures the extent to which the system is affected by the hazard occurrence. This enables the study of specific strategies for responding to each kind of risk, to enhance accessibility to tsunami shelters. Nagoya City in Japan served as the case study; the city is one of the most advanced tsunami-resilient port cities in the world. The spatial distribution of the hazard-product risk and hazard-affected risk was first visualized in 165 School District samples, covering 213km2 using a Hot Spot Analysis. The results suggest that the rules governing the distribution of these two-dimensional (2D) risks are significantly different. By refining the tsunami evacuation time-space routes, traffic location related indicators, referring to three-scale traffic patterns with three-hierarchy traffic roads, are used as accessibility variables. Two-way Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA) was used to analyse the differences in these accessibility variables to compare the 2D risk. MANOVA was also used to assess the difference of accessibility between high-level risk and low-level risk in each risk dimension. The results show that tsunami shelter accessibility strategies, targeting hazard-product risk and hazard-affected risk, are significantly different in Nagoya. These different strategies are needed to adapt to the risk.

Weitao Zhang et al.
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Weitao Zhang et al.
Weitao Zhang et al.
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Latest update: 18 Oct 2018
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Short summary
The study integrates tsunami hazards that create risk into: hazard-product risk and hazard-affected risk. Consistent with different factors evaluated for these two risk dimensions, different spatial distributions between them can be formed. The study recommends tsunami shelter accessibility to be enhanced where hazard-product risk is large and where hazard-affected risk is high in a different and targeted way. The tsunami risk situation’s complexity in coastal port cities makes this interesting.
The study integrates tsunami hazards that create risk into: hazard-product risk and...