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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-265
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-265
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 20 Sep 2018

Research article | 20 Sep 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of this manuscript was accepted for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) and is expected to appear here in due course.

Weight analysis of dam break risk consequences influencing factors

Zongkun Li, Wei Li, and Wei Ge Zongkun Li et al.
  • School of Water Conservancy and Environment Engineering, Zhengzhou University 450001, China

Abstract. There are numerous influencing factors of the risk consequences of dam break. Scientific and reasonable index system and its weight distribution is one of the key element for comprehensive evaluation of the dam-break risk. Taking into consideration of 20 factors, including hazards, exposure and vulnerability factors, the evaluation index system of the consequences of the dam break risk is constructed. Using the Statistical Cloud Model (SCM) to improve the entropy method, we establish the weight calculation model of the influencing factors of the dam break risk consequences. The results shows that the top 5 factors with the highest weight are risk population, flood intensity, alert time, risk understanding and distance from the dam. Compared to the traditional algebraic weight calculation methods, the result is basically consistent with the algebraic weight distribution, and increases the range by 2.03 times, supporting a more scientific basis for recognizing and evaluating the dam break risk consequences.

Zongkun Li et al.
Interactive discussion
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Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Zongkun Li et al.
Model code and software

Drawing the Cloud Model by Matlab X. Da-liang https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1674-9146.2016.01.108

Zongkun Li et al.
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Short summary
It is necessary to analyze the weight of multi factors on the risk consequence of dam break. When the number of influencing factors exceeds 10 or more, the analysis of its weight will become very difficult. In this manuscript, the cloud model, an artificial intelligence calculation method, is used to transform the subjective factors into a large number of data for the improved entropy weight method. The result is objective and reasonable, providing a new way of analyzing multi factor weights.
It is necessary to analyze the weight of multi factors on the risk consequence of dam break....
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