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Discussion papers | Copyright
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-239
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 30 Aug 2018

Research article | 30 Aug 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Coastline evolution based on statistical analysis and modelling

Elvira Armenio, Francesca De Serio, Michele Mossa, and Antonio F. Petrillo Elvira Armenio et al.
  • Department of Civil, Environmental, Land, Building Engineering and Chemistry (DICATECh), Polytechnic University of Bari, Italy

Abstract. Wind, waves, tides, sediment supply, changes in relative sea level and human activities strongly affect shorelines, which constantly move in response to these processes, over a variety of time scales. Thus, the implementation of sound coastal zone management strategies needs reliable information on erosion and/or deposition processes. Suggesting a feasible way to provide such information is the main motivation of the present work. A chain approach is here proposed, tested on a vulnerable coastal site located along the southern Italy, and based on the joint analysis of field data, statistical tools and numerical modelling. Firstly, the coastline morphology has been examined through interannual field data, such as aerial photographs, plane-bathymetric surveys, seabed characterization. After this, rates of shoreline changes have been quantified with a specific GIS tool. Correlations among the historical shoreline positions have been detected by statistical analysis and have been satisfactorily confirmed by numerical modelling, in terms of recurrent erosion/accretion area and beach rotation trends. Finally, based on field topographic, sediment, wave and wind data, the response of the beach by the numerical simulation has been investigated in a forecasting perspective. The scope of this study is providing a feasible, general and replicable chain approach, which could help to thoroughly understand the dynamics of a coastal system, identifying typical and recurrent erosion/accretion processes, and predict possible future trends, useful for planning coastal activities.

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Short summary
The present study describes an approach for the assessment of beach accretion/erosion, based on the joint use of data analysis, statistical methods and one-line numerical modeling. A chain method is proposed, based on the joint analysis of field data, statistical tools and numerical modeling. The coastline morphology has been examined through interannual field data, such as aerial photographs, plane-bathymetric surveys, seabed characterization.
The present study describes an approach for the assessment of beach accretion/erosion, based on...
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