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Discussion papers | Copyright
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 24 Jul 2018

Research article | 24 Jul 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Tsunami Hazard assessment and Scenarios Database for the Tsunami Warning System for the coast of Oman

Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga1, José A. Álvarez-Gómez2, Mauricio González1, Jara Martínez Sánchez1, Laura M. Parro2, Ignacio Aguirre-Ayerbe1, Felipe Fernández1, Raúl Medina1, and Sultan Al-Yahyai3 Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga et al.
  • 1Environmental Hydraulics Institute IH Cantabria, Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
  • 2Complutense University of Madrid, Department of Geodynamics, Stratigraphy and Paleontology, Faculty of Geology
  • 3Directorate General of Meteorology and Air Navigation, DGMAN, Public Authority for Civil Aviation, PACA, Muscat, Oman

Abstract. Advances in the understanding of tsunami impacts allow developing products to assess its consequences in tsunami-prone areas, as it is the case of the coast of the Sultanate of Oman. This paper presents the followed methodology and the obtained results for the assessment of the tsunami hazard of the coast of Oman and the development of the scenario database that feeds its Tsunami Warning System (TWS). Initially, a seismo-tectonic analysis of the area was carried out, focused on identifying the seismic areas whose earthquakes could generate tsunamis affecting the coast of Oman. A database of 3181 tsunamigenic sources was characterized by means of the parameters that define their focal mechanisms. This database includes scenarios with magnitudes Mw ranging from 6.5 to 9.25 within the study area, but it is especially focused on the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ). The 3181 cases were numerically propagated to feed the database and to work as precomputed scenarios for the TWS: In case of tsunami, the results for the closest precomputed scenario (in location and magnitude) are shown. From the database, 7 worst-case scenarios were selected and computationally simulated at national and local scale, in 9 municipalities all along the coast of Oman, resulting in tsunami hazard maps containing relevant variables in the flooded area, such as the inundation water depth and the drag level (hazard degree for people instability).

Finally, in order to manage conveniently the results, an online tool, called Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment System (MHRAS), was developed. This tool is a viewer that contains an easy-to-use application, including the results of the tsunami hazard assessment and the tsunami scenario database, and the selection algorithm to choose the proper case among the precomputed ones. The results of this research are part of the National Multi-Hazard Early Warning System of Oman (NMHEWS).

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Short summary
In this work, two of the main strategies to reduce tsunami risk on the coast of Oman are addressed. The tsunami hazard assessment (calculation of the potentially flooded area) and the elaboration of a database of tsunami events that is a fundamental part of the Oman Tsunami Warning System. The study included the characterization of the tsunamigenic sources affecting the study area and the numerical simulation of their generation, propagation and inundation.
In this work, two of the main strategies to reduce tsunami risk on the coast of Oman are...