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Discussion papers | Copyright
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 18 Jul 2018

Research article | 18 Jul 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

From regional to local SPTHA: efficient computation of probabilistic inundation maps addressing near-field sources

Manuela Volpe, Stefano Lorito, Jacopo Selva, Roberto Tonini, Fabrizio Romano, and Beatriz Brizuela Manuela Volpe et al.
  • Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy

Abstract. Site-specific Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA) is computationally demanding, as it requires in principle a huge number of high-resolution numerical simulations for producing probabilistic inundation maps. We implemented an efficient and robust methodology that, based on the similarity of offshore tsunamis and hazard curves in front of a target site, uses a filtering procedure to reduce the number of numerical simulations needed, while still allowing full treatment of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Moreover, near-field sources are identified, on the basis of the tsunami coseismic initial conditions, and treated separately to avoid biases in the tsunami hazard assessment. In fact, coastal coseismic deformation necessarily affects the tsunami intensity, depending on the scenario size, mechanism, and position. Therefore, we developed two parallel filtering schemes in the far- and the near-field, respectively. For near-field sources, offshore tsunami amplitude can not represent a proxy for the coastal inundation, and filtering is based on coseismic field. By comparison of the results obtained with and without the correction for the near-field sources, for a use-case at the Milazzo oil refinery (Sicily, Italy), we demonstrated that special treatment of local sources plays a fundamental role and is applicable in local scale SPTHA.

Manuela Volpe et al.
Interactive discussion
Status: final response (author comments only)
Status: final response (author comments only)
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Manuela Volpe et al.
Manuela Volpe et al.
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