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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 26 Jul 2018

Research article | 26 Jul 2018

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This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript is under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Development and validation of the Terrain Stability model for assessing landslide risk during heavy rain infiltration

Alfonso Gutiérrez-Martín1, Miguel Ángel Herrada2, José Ignacio Yenes Gallego3, and Ricardo Castedo Ruiz4 Alfonso Gutiérrez-Martín et al.
  • 1Dr. Arquitecto, Escuela Superior de Arquitectura; Universidad de Málaga, España
  • 2Catedrático de Universidad, Escuel a Superior de Ingenieros de la Universidad de Sevilla, España
  • 3Dr. Ingeniero José Ignacio Yenes Gallego, Jefe de Unidad, Dirección General de Infraestructuras, MINISDEF, Madrid, España
  • 4Dr. Ingeniero Ricardo Castedo Ruiz, Departamento de Ingeniería Geológica y Minera, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, España

Abstract. Slope stability is a key topic, not only for engineers but also for politicians, due to the considerable monetary and human losses that landslides can cause every year. In fact, it is estimated that landslides have caused thousands of deaths and economic losses amounting to tens of billions of euros per year around the world. The geological stability of slopes is affected by several factors, such as climate, earthquakes, lithology and rock structures, among others. Climate is one of the main factors, especially when large amounts of rainwater are absorbed in short periods of time. Taking into account this issue, we developed an innovative analytical model using the limit equilibrium method supported by a geographic information system (GIS). This model is especially useful for predicting the risk of landslides in scenarios of heavy unpredictable rainfall. A hydrological steady-state assumption was incorporated into this approach. The model, called Terrain Stability (TS), was developed and programmed in MATLAB. This model allows a simulation of the slope stability in a 2D spatial distribution. Many variables measured in the field – topography, precipitation, type of soil – can be added, changed or updated using simple input parameters. To validate the model, we applied it to a real example, that of a landslide which resulted in human and material losses (collapse of a building) at Hundidero, La Viñuela (Málaga) in February 2010.

Alfonso Gutiérrez-Martín et al.
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Alfonso Gutiérrez-Martín et al.
Alfonso Gutiérrez-Martín et al.
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Short summary
This research work of this paper comes to complete my activity in the Military Emergency Unit of Spain, to respond to the problem of slope instabilities and how to predict them in the case of heavy rains. This work comes to complete the work of stabilization and stresses made by torrential rains in the South of Spain. The results have been satisfactory.
This research work of this paper comes to complete my activity in the Military Emergency Unit of...