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Discussion papers | Copyright
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-169
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 09 Jul 2018

Research article | 09 Jul 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Flood risk assessment due to cyclone induced dike breaching on coastal areas of Bangladesh

Md Feroz Islam1, Biswa Bhattacharya2, and Ioana Popescu2 Md Feroz Islam et al.
  • 1Copernicus Institute, Department of Environmental Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, 3584 CB, the Netherlands
  • 2IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Delft, 2611 AX, the Netherlands

Abstract. Bangladesh, one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world, has a dynamic delta with 123 polders protected by earthen dikes. Cyclone induced storm surges cause severe damages to these polders by overtopping and breaching the dikes. Nineteen major tropical storms hit the coast in last 50 years and storm intensity is predicted to increase due to climate change. The present paper presents an investigation of the inundation pattern in a protected area behind dikes due to floods caused by storm surges and identifies possible critical locations of dike breaches. Polder 48 in the coastal region, also known as Kuakata, was selected as the study area. A HEC-RAS 1D–2D inundation model was developed to simulate inundation under different scenarios. Tidal variations, angle of the cyclone at landfall, different dike breach locations, geometrical properties of the breach, breach propagation time and the sea level rise due to climate change according to the fifth assessment report (AR5) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were combined to develop the scenarios. The critical location of the dike breach was identified by comparing the three worst cases of the developed scenarios. Generated flood risk maps corresponding to the breaching at the critical location indicated that settlements adjacent to the canals face higher risk. The probabilistic flood map (PFM) calculated from the results of all the developed scenarios indicated the need of appropriate land use zoning to minimize the vulnerability to flooding. The developed model can be applied to generate location based flood forecasting, identify critical locations of the dike to reduce the risk from flooding and to study the effect of climate change.

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Short summary
Bangladesh, one of the most disaster-prone countries, has a dynamic delta with 123 polders. Cyclone induced storm surges cause severe damages to these polders. This paper presents an investigation of the inundation pattern inside a polder due to dike failure caused by storm surges and identifies possible critical locations of dike breaches. Moreover risk of flooding was assessed and probabilistic flood map was generated due to breaching of dike.
Bangladesh, one of the most disaster-prone countries, has a dynamic delta with 123 polders....
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