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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-128
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
17 May 2018
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Statistical Characteristics of Mudflows in the Piedmont Areas of Uzbekistan and the Role of Synoptic Processes for their Formation
Gavkhar Mamadjanova1,2, Simon Wild1,3, Michael A. Walz1, and Gregor C. Leckebusch1 1School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, UK
2Uzhydromet (Centre of Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Uzbekistan), Tashkent, Uzbekistan
3Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
Abstract. The purpose of this study is to understand atmospheric factors from local to synoptic scales, which cause mudflow variability on interannual and longer time scales. In a first step, historical data of mudflow occurrences in Uzbekistan provided by the Centre of Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Uzbekistan (Uzhydromet) for more than 140 years was analysed. During the investigation period a total of about 3000 mudflow events were observed with about 21 events per year on average. The majority of mudflows occur during the advection of westerly airflow when moist air from Central and Southern Europe reaches Uzbekistan. This synoptic weather type (SWT) can be related to one of the 15 primary synoptic circulation types over Central Asia (CA) and Uzbekistan, which were subjectively derived by Bugayev and Giorgio in the 1930–40s. To understand the main atmospheric regimes steering the variability of mudflow occurrences, we applied additionally an objective classification following the Circulation Weather Types (CWT) approach. By means of the CWT approach, we further analyse that on mudflow-days the frequencies of cyclonic (C), westerly (W), south-westerly (SW) and north-westerly (NW) stream flows are increased in comparison to the climatological frequency of the occurrence of these circulation weather patterns. Results confirm that CWT westerly airflow initiates relatively more mudflow events comparing to other CWTs in study area. Integrated approach of the CWT classification and an antecedent daily rainfall model are combined together in logistic regression analysis to construct mudflow triggering precipitation threshold per CWT class. In general W, SW and C weather types require less antecedent rainfall amount to trigger mudflow occurrences in the study area. This technique is thus shown to be applicable to coarse resolution climate model diagnostics.
Citation: Mamadjanova, G., Wild, S., Walz, M. A., and Leckebusch, G. C.: Statistical Characteristics of Mudflows in the Piedmont Areas of Uzbekistan and the Role of Synoptic Processes for their Formation, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-128, in review, 2018.
Gavkhar Mamadjanova et al.
Gavkhar Mamadjanova et al.

Data sets

The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. D. P. Dee, S. M. Uppala, A. J. Simmons, P. Berrisford, P. Poli, S. Kobayashi, U. Andrae, M. A. Balmaseda, G. Balsamo, P. Bauer, P. Bechtold, A. C. M. Beljaars, L. van de Berg, J. Bidlot, N. Bormann, C. Delsol, R. Dragani, M. Fuentes, A. J. Geer, L. Haimberger, S. B. Healy, H. Hersbach, E. V. Hólm, L. Isaksen, P. Kållberg, M. Köhler, M. Matricardi, A. P. McNally, B. M. Monge-Sanz, J.-J. Morcrette, B.-K. Park, C. Peubey, P. de Rosnay, C. Tavolato, J.-N. Thépaut, and F. Vitart https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828
Gavkhar Mamadjanova et al.

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Short summary
In this paper the investigation of the main climatic mudflow conditions in Uzbekistan based on local observational data and peer-reviewed material from non-English literature which is widely missing in scientific, peer-reviewed international literature making it accessible for an international research community for the first time.
In this paper the investigation of the main climatic mudflow conditions in Uzbekistan based on...
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