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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-125
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-125
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 30 May 2018

Research article | 30 May 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript is under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Potential Impact of Climate Change and Extreme Events on Slope Land Hazard – A Case Study of Xindian Watershed in Taiwan

Shih-Chao Wei1, Hsin-Chi Li2, Hung-Ju Shih2, and Ko-Fei Liu1 Shih-Chao Wei et al.
  • 1Department of Civil Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan
  • 2National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, New Taipei City 23143, Taiwan

Abstract. The production and transportation of sediment in mountainous areas caused by extreme rainfall events triggered by climate change is a challenging problem, especially in watersheds. To investigate this issue, the present study adopted the scenario approach coupled with simulations using various models. Upon careful model selection, the simulation of projected rainfall, landslide, debris flow, and loss assessment were integrated by connecting the models' input and output. The Xindian watershed upstream from Taipei, Taiwan, was identified and two extreme rainfall scenarios from the late 20th and 21st centuries were selected to compare the effects of climate change. Using sequence simulations, the chain reaction and compounded disaster were analysed. Moreover, the potential effects of slope land hazards were compared between the present and future, and the likely impacts in the selected watershed areas were discussed with respect to extreme climate. The results established that the unstable sediment volume would increase by 28.81% in terms of the projected extreme event. The total economic losses caused by the chain impacts of slope land disasters under climate change would be increased to US$ 358.25 million. Owing to the geographical environment of the Taipei metropolitan area, the indirect losses of water supply shortage caused by slope land disasters would be more serious than direct losses. In particular, avenues to ensure the availability of water supply will be the most critical disaster prevention topic in the event of a future slope land disaster. The results obtained from this study are expected to be beneficial, because they provide critical information for devising long-term strategies to combat the impacts of slope land disasters.

Shih-Chao Wei et al.
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Short summary
We adopted the projected rainfall coupled with simulations including landslide, debris flow, and loss assessment to investigate the impact on sediment-related disaster. The Xindian watershed upstream from Taipei was identified and two extreme rainfall from the late 20th and 21st centuries were selected. The economic losses are projected to increase by 27.8 % due to the increasing disasters caused by climate change. The influence on downstream city will be mainly in the form of indirect impact.
We adopted the projected rainfall coupled with simulations including landslide, debris flow, and...
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