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Discussion papers | Copyright
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-446
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 02 Jan 2018

Research article | 02 Jan 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript is under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Estimating the risk related to networks: a methodology and an application on a road network

Jürgen Hackl1, Juan Carlos Lam1, Magnus Heitzler2, Bryan T. Adey1, and Lorenz Hurni2 Jürgen Hackl et al.
  • 1Institute of Construction and Infrastructure Management, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
  • 2Institute of Cartography and Geoinformation, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland

Abstract. Networks, such as transportation, water, and power, are critical lifelines to society. Managers plan and execute interventions to guarantee the operational state of their networks under various circumstances, including after the occurrence of (natural) hazard events. Creating an intervention program demands knowing the probable consequences (i.e., risk) of the various hazard events that could occur to be able to mitigate their effects. This paper introduces a methodology to support network managers in the quantification of the risk related to their networks. The method emphasizes the integration of the spatial and temporal attributes of the events that need to be modeled to estimate the risk. This work then demonstrates the usefulness of the methodology through its application to design and implement a risk assessment to estimate the potential impact of flood and mudflow events on a road network located in Switzerland. The example includes the modeling of (i) multiple hazard events, (ii) their physical and functional effects throughout the road network, (iii) the functional interrelationships of the affected objects in the network, (iv) the resulting probable consequences in terms of expected costs of restoration, cost of traffic changes, and duration of network disruption, and (v) the restoration of the network.

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This paper introduces a methodology to support network managers in the quantification of the risk related to their networks. The method emphasizes the integration of the spatial and temporal attributes of the events that need to be modeled to estimate the risk. This work then demonstrates the usefulness of the methodology through its application to design and implement a risk assessment to estimate the potential impact of flood and mudflow events on a road network located in Switzerland.
This paper introduces a methodology to support network managers in the quantification of the...
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