Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-428
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
19 Dec 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Adopting I3–R24 rainfall index and landslide susceptibility on the establishment of early warning model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides
Lun-Wei Wei1,2, Chuen-Ming Huang1,3, Chyi-Tyi Lee3, Chun-Chi Chi4, and Chen-Lung Chiu4 1Disaster Prevention Technology Research Center, Sinotech Engineering Consultants, INC., Taiwan
2Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taiwan
3Institute of Applied Geology, National Central University, Taiwan
4Central Geological Survey, MOEA, Taiwan
Abstract. Rainfall-induced landslide is one of the most devastating natural hazards in the world and the setup of early warning models is a pressing need for reducing losses and fatalities. Most part of landslide early warnings are based on rainfall thresholds defined at the regional scale, regardless of the different landslide susceptibility of each slope. Here we tried to divide slope units in southern Taiwan into three categories (high, moderate, low) according to their susceptibility. For each category, we established their rainfall thresholds separately so as to provide differentiated thresholds for different susceptibility. Logistic regression (LR) analysis was performed to evaluate the landslide susceptibility by using event based landslide inventories and predisposing factors. Through the analysis of rainfall patterns of more than 900 landslide cases gathered from field investigation, 3-hour mean rainfall intensity (I3) was recognized as a key rainfall index for short duration but high intensity rainfall; on the other hand, 24-hour accumulated rainfall (R24) was recognized as a key rainfall index for long duration but low intensity rainfall. Thus, the I3–R24 rainfall index was used for the establishment of rainfall thresholds in this study. Finally, an early warning model was proposed by setting warning signs including yellow (advisory), orange (watch) and red (warning) according to the concept of hazard matrix. These differentiated thresholds and warning signs can provide essential information for local government on evacuating decision of residents.
Citation: Wei, L.-W., Huang, C.-M., Lee, C.-T., Chi, C.-C., and Chiu, C.-L.: Adopting I3–R24 rainfall index and landslide susceptibility on the establishment of early warning model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-428, in review, 2017.
Lun-Wei Wei et al.
Lun-Wei Wei et al.
Lun-Wei Wei et al.

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Short summary
The difference in susceptibility might lead to a difference in warning threshold for rainfall-induced landslides. Here we divided slope units into 3 susceptibility levels and established their thresholds separately. It was found that the thresholds gradually decreased as the susceptibility of slope increased. This showed that classifying susceptibility and establishing thresholds separately might be able to provide differentiated warning thresholds for different susceptibility levels.
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