Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-425
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
02 Jan 2018
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Regional physically based landslide early warning modelling: soil parameterisation and validation of the results
Teresa Salvatici1, Veronica Tofani1, Guglielmo Rossi1, Michele D'Ambrosio1, Carlo Tacconi Stefanelli1, Elena Benedetta Masi1, Ascanio Rosi1, Veronica Pazzi1, Pietro Vannocci1, Miriana Petrolo1, Filippo Catani1, Sara Ratto2, Hervè Stevenin2, and Nicola Casagli1 1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Firenze, Firenze, 50121, Italy
2Centro funzionale, Regione Autonoma Valle d'Aosta, Aosta, 11100, Italy
Abstract. In this work, we apply a physically-based model, namely the HIRESSS (High REsolution Stability Simulator) model, to forecast the occurrence of shallow landslides at regional scale. The final aim is the set-up of an early warning system at regional scale for shallow landslides. HIRESSS is a physically based distributed slope stability simulator for analysing shallow landslide triggering conditions in real time and in large areas using parallel computational techniques. The software can run in real-time by assimilating weather data and uses Monte Carlo simulation techniques to manage the geotechnical and hydrological input parameters. The test area is a portion of the Valle d'Aosta region, located in North-West Alpine mountain chain. The geomorphology of the region is characterized by steep slopes with elevations ranging from 400 m a.s.l. of Dora Baltea's river floodplain to 4810 m a.s.l. of Mont Blanc. In the study area, the mean annual precipitation is about 800–900 mm. These features lead to a high hydrogeological hazard in the whole territory, as mass movements interest the 70 % of the municipality areas (mainly shallow rapid landslides and rock falls). In order to apply the model and to increase its reliability, an in-depth study of the geotechnical and hydrological properties of hillslopes controlling shallow landslides formation was conducted. In particular, two campaigns of on site measurements and laboratory experiments were performed with 12 survey points. The data collected contributes to generate input map of parameters for HIRESSS model. In order to take into account the effect of vegetation on slope stability, the contribution of the root cohesion has been also taken into account based on the vegetation map and literature values. The model was applied in back analysis on two past events that have affected Valle d'Aosta region between 2008 and 2009, triggering several fast shallow landslides. The validation of the results, carried out using a database of past landslides, has provided good results and a good prediction accuracy of the HIRESSS model both from temporal and spatial point of view. A statistical analysis of the HIRESSS outputs in terms of failure probability has been carried out in order to define reliable alert levels for regional landslide early warning systems.

Citation: Salvatici, T., Tofani, V., Rossi, G., D'Ambrosio, M., Tacconi Stefanelli, C., Masi, E. B., Rosi, A., Pazzi, V., Vannocci, P., Petrolo, M., Catani, F., Ratto, S., Stevenin, H., and Casagli, N.: Regional physically based landslide early warning modelling: soil parameterisation and validation of the results, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-425, in review, 2018.
Teresa Salvatici et al.
Teresa Salvatici et al.
Teresa Salvatici et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 132 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
95 33 4 132 1 2

Views and downloads (calculated since 02 Jan 2018)

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 02 Jan 2018)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 132 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

Thereof 129 with geography defined and 3 with unknown origin.

Country # Views %
  • 1

Saved

Discussed

Latest update: 20 Jan 2018
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
In this paper, we present the application of a physically-based model (namely the HIRESSS model, High REsolution Stability Simulator), to forecast the occurrence of shallow landslides in a portion of the Valle d'Aosta region (Italy). An in-depth study of the geotechnical and hydrological properties of hillslopes controlling shallow landslides formation was conducted, in order to generate input map of parameters. The final aim is the set-up of a regional landslide early warning system.
In this paper, we present the application of a physically-based model (namely the HIRESSS model,...
Share