Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-414
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
16 Jan 2018
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Exceptionally cold water days in the southern Taiwan Strait: their predictability and relation to La Niña
Yu-Hsin Cheng1,2 and Ming-Huei Chang1 1Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University, Taipei, 10617, Taiwan
2State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, China
Abstract. The objectives of this study were to assess the predictability of exceptionally cold water in the Taiwan Strait (TS) and to develop a warning system on the base of scientific mechanism, which is a component of the information technology system currently under development in Taiwan to protect aquaculture against extreme hazards. Optimum interpolation sea surface temperature (SST) data were used to find exceptionally cold water days from January 1995 to May 2017. We found that the SST and wind speed over the TS are low and strong in La Niña winters, respectively. According to tests conducted using relative operating characteristic curves, predictions based on the Oceanic Niño Index and integrated wind speed can be employed at lead times of 60–210 and 0–30 days, respectively. This study utilized these two proxies to develop a possible warning mechanism and concluded four colors of warning light: (1) blue, meaning normal; (2) cyan, meaning warning; (3) yellow, meaning moderate risk; and (4) red, meaning high risk. Hindcasting winters over the period 1995–2017 successfully predicted the cold water hazards in the winters of 2000, 2008, 2011, and 2012 in prior to the coldest day ~ 20 days.
Citation: Cheng, Y.-H. and Chang, M.-H.: Exceptionally cold water days in the southern Taiwan Strait: their predictability and relation to La Niña, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-414, in review, 2018.
Yu-Hsin Cheng and Ming-Huei Chang
Yu-Hsin Cheng and Ming-Huei Chang
Yu-Hsin Cheng and Ming-Huei Chang

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Short summary
The invasion of exceptionally cold water in the Southern Taiwan Strait often causes huge damages in marine ecology and fishing activities. A strong cold event in 2008 winter led to the death of wild fish ~ 73 tons and damaged 80 % of cage-based aquaculture. We found the physical processes in the ocean induced by the La Niña cold wind drive the invasion of cold water. Therefore, a warning system was successfully developed on the basis of the Oceanic Niño Index and integrated wind speed.
The invasion of exceptionally cold water in the Southern Taiwan Strait often causes huge damages...
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