Journal cover Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 2.281 IF 2.281
  • IF 5-year value: 2.693 IF 5-year 2.693
  • CiteScore value: 2.43 CiteScore 2.43
  • SNIP value: 1.193 SNIP 1.193
  • SJR value: 0.965 SJR 0.965
  • IPP value: 2.31 IPP 2.31
  • h5-index value: 40 h5-index 40
  • Scimago H index value: 73 Scimago H index 73
Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-389
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-389
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 14 Dec 2017

Research article | 14 Dec 2017

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript is under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

A hazard model of subfreezing temperatures in the United Kingdom using vine copulas

Symeon Koumoutsaris Symeon Koumoutsaris
  • Guy Carpenter, Tower Place, London, EC3R 5BU, UK

Abstract. Extreme cold weather events, such as the winters of 1962/63, the third coldest winter ever recorded, or more recently the winter of 2010/11, have significant consequences for the society and economy. This paper assesses the probability of such extreme cold weather across the United Kingdom. For that, a statistical model is developed in order to model the extremes of the Air Freezing Index (AFI), which is a common measure of magnitude and duration of freezing temperatures. A novel approach in the modelling of the spatial dependence of the hazard has been followed which takes advantage of the vine copula methodology. The method allows to model complex dependencies especially between the tails of the AFI distributions which is important to assess reliably the extreme behaviour of such events. The model suggests that the extreme winter 1962/63 has a return period of approximately once every 89 years, but the relative short record length together with the unclear effects of anthropogenic forcing on the local climate add considerable uncertainty to this estimate. This model is used as part of a probabilistic catastrophe model for insured losses caused by the bursting of pipes.

Symeon Koumoutsaris
Interactive discussion
Status: final response (author comments only)
Status: final response (author comments only)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
[Login for Authors/Editors] [Subscribe to comment alert] Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Symeon Koumoutsaris
Symeon Koumoutsaris
Viewed  
Total article views: 539 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
315 210 14 539 3 11
  • HTML: 315
  • PDF: 210
  • XML: 14
  • Total: 539
  • BibTeX: 3
  • EndNote: 11
Views and downloads (calculated since 14 Dec 2017)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 14 Dec 2017)
Viewed (geographical distribution)  
Total article views: 519 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 513 with geography defined and 6 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Cited  
Saved  
No saved metrics found.
Discussed  
No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 21 Jan 2019
Publications Copernicus
Download
Citation
Share